Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
941 FXUS63 KICT 151900 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cluster of showers/storms moving into portions of central and south central KS - Additional showers/storms possible this evening into tonight - Hot temperatures continue into next week - Active weather pattern with multiple rain chances Tuesday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 As of 2PM Saturday afternoon, a midlevel shortwave trough was advancing across western KS. In response to this shortwave, a cluster of showers and storms has developed across central/south central KS. At this hour, the cluster extends from just southwest of Great Bend, southward through Greensburg. Given the forcing for ascent aloft and minimal inhibition, this cluster should continue east-northeastward towards the Interstate 135 corridor. The overall severe weather potential seems relatively low, although DCAPE values upwards of 1300 J/kg will support localized gusty winds up to 50 mph. Otherwise, additional showers and storms are possible this evening into the overnight with the shortwave trough remaining in the neighborhood and increasing low-level WAA. Meager deep layer shear should continue to limit the potential for severe storms. Transitioning into Sunday and next week, the midlevel ridge axis will amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the Plains on the western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return Tuesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A upper level wave will move eastward across Kansas today and will spark off some scattered showers/storms across parts of central/south central Kansas. Any remaining storms are expected to diminish shortly after sunset. Meanwhile south winds will remain gusty across the region until late evening hours. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...CDJ