197
FXUS63 KICT 151734
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms possible from late afternoon
  through tonight, mainly north and west of the KS-turnpike.

- Heat indices will approach the low 100s tomorrow across
  portions of central and south central KS.

- Additional storms possible again Tuesday-Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A compact shortwave trough axis is starting to emerge over eastern
Colorado and will move across Kansas from mid-afternoon through late
evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will
be possible by early afternoon and thru the evening as the
associated PV wave impinges on the CWA. Best chances (20%) for
storms across the area will be mainly north and west of the KS
turnpike. Storms that can form may be strong to marginally
severe. Increasing moisture advection is expected to expand
across the area through tonight with a modest LLJ overhead, thus
chances (20-25%) of elevated showers and storms will continue
thru the overnight.

By tomorrow afternoon, longwave troughing will begin to dominate the
western CONUS while ridging dominates the eastern CONUS resulting in
continued southerly to southwesterly flow overhead. Heat indices
will approach the low 100s tomorrow across portions of central
and south central KS. Lee troughing will tighten up the
pressure gradient across the state and bring gusty southerly
winds to the area thru mid week, with temps in the 90s
continuing area wide. By late Tuesday to Wednesday a wave
through the main western trough will push a cold front through
the region increasing chances of showers and storms. Late week
the pattern turns more zonal with chances of intermittent
shower and storms continuing through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A upper level wave will move eastward across Kansas today and
will spark off some scattered showers/storms across parts of
central/south central Kansas. Any remaining storms are expected
to diminish shortly after sunset. Meanwhile south winds will
remain gusty across the region until late evening hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...CDJ