Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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790 FXUS63 KICT 200809 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 309 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for storms Saturday night with a few strong/severe storms possible. - Unseasonably hot temperatures expected to start Sunday and ramp up for the Mon-Wed time frame. Many locations through this period will see highs at or even a few degrees higher than 100 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Water vapor imagery shows some shortwave energy coming onshore over Central/Southern CA with some northern stream energy over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, upper ridging extends from the Mid Atlantic States into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Northern Great Lakes region, with a weak cold front from Central IL through Central MO and starts to wash out across Southern KS. A few storms have been lifting across central KS overnight in an area of weak 850mb moisture transport. By 12z, storms should be tracking out of the forecast area. Not much is expected to change in the overall pattern today with additional upper energy digging over Central CA and upper ridging centered over the Tennessee Valley. The best storm chances tonight will be well north of the forecast area in an area of good low level jet convergence. On Fri, the western CONUS impulse will start to quickly lift northeast and will track across the Great Basin and into the Central Plains Fri night into Sat morning. A weak cold front will then track south on Sat as the upper wave moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Front is expected to move through Sat night with some scattered storms possible along it. However, confidence is low on how widespread storms will be as our forecast area will be pretty far removed from the better upper dynamics. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with any storms that develop Sat night. The main story through this forecast package will be extreme heat that is expected to build-in by the start of next week. This will be the result of upper ridging strengthening from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains with 30C 850mb temps moving-in by Mon and remaining through at least Tue. This will bring widespread highs at the century mark or even a few degrees above. These highs will be around 10-15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions are currently in place across the area. Isolated showers and storms continue to fester around the area, can`t rule out brief instances of VCTS/-TSRA, will amend as needed. Otherwise, MVFR to potentially IFR cigs are expected to develop across central KS this morning, potentially extending as far south as KHUT. Light easterly/variable winds are expected which may also lead to some patchy fog over the next several hours given small temp/dewpoint depressions. Confidence in any fog development is low. Winds will remain on the light side and turn more S and SE by this afternoon. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...KMB