Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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956 FXUS63 KICT 221129 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler today with lingering showers/storms through tonight. - Below average temperatures for the upcoming week. - Potential for increasing rain chances late week and next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 PRECIPITATION... TODAY--EARLY MONDAY...An approaching potent shortwave trough in concert with a strong/deep frontal zone will support continued widespread areas of rain/storms across the region through about midday. While instability is lacking, strong forcing amidst high precipitable waters will support areas of heavy rainfall, and possibly localized minor flooding of typical flood-prone areas. Activity will likely becoming less widespread/numerous this afternoon and evening, as the upper trough shears out and associated lift decreases. The available forcing and associated hit-or-miss precipitation chances will gradually focus across mainly southeast Kansas by late this afternoon through tonight and early Monday. TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...Shortwave energy diving south-southeast across Mid-America may support hit-or-miss mainly light precipitation. Thinking rainfall amounts will remain light given marginal precipitable waters. LATE WEEK--NEXT WEEKEND...The ECMWF and Canadian deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support the potential for increasing meaningful precipitation over mainly eastern Kansas, as a stalled mid-level trough over the region interacts with dissipating tropical energy/moisture approaching from the southeast. The deterministic GFS and ensemble mean still is not supporting this scenario, and the Canadian solution has backed off some, so for now will only carry 20- 30 PoPs until model agreement increases. TEMPERATURES... TODAY--NEXT WEEK...Cooler Canadian air oozing south combined with precipitation and mostly cloudy skies will support well below average temperatures today, ranging from the 50s-60s to near 80 degrees, warmest over far southeast Kansas. Below average temperatures will prevail through the week, with forecast highs mostly in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A large swath of showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms is moving across much of the eastern half of Kansas this morning. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall is brining visibility down around 1 to 4 miles in some areas. Behind this large area of rain, showers become more hit-or-miss. As such, rain chances should gradually diminish from west to east over the next 24 hours or so. Portions of central Kansas will see improving conditions perhaps as soon as 18Z while portions of southeast Kansas may not see improving conditions until tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is sweeping across Kansas this morning. It`s located generally along the Kansas Turnpike as of 12Z. Winds are light and variable ahead of the front, but will become more uniform out of the north at around 10 to 15 knots after frontal passage. Cigs will also fluctuate between VFR and IFR this morning and early this afternoon across south-central and southeast Kansas. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell today. The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast calling for upper 50s or low 60s. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC CLIMATE...ADK