Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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419 FXUS63 KICT 172338 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 638 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...Updated Aviation Forecast... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty south winds this evening especially for areas along and west of I-135. - Storm chances increase late Tue afternoon and evening over central KS along a slow moving cold front. Strong/severe storms are possible with this activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A shortwave trough moving over the central and northern Great Basin area was serving to break down the mid/upper ridge over the central CONUS with southwest mid/upper flow returning. Meanwhile, a cold front was draped across southern Nebraska extending northeastward into the Great Lakes area. The front over southern Nebraska will initially lift northward this evening as a warm front while a surge of cooler air is progged to impact the Central High Plains tonight. Strong southerly winds will persist into the evening hours as we remain within a deeply mixed pbl and the LLJ is progged to quickly ramp up this evening. A wind advisory remains in effect through 9 PM for parts of central KS. The slow moving or stationary front over western Kansas on Tuesday will likely become a focus for deep moist convection on Tuesday afternoon becoming more numerous on Tuesday evening. We continue to see stronger capping as you move further south with locations along and north of I-70 having the higher probabilities for showers and storms. A stationary front will remain draped across portions of central and western Kansas on Wednesday likely becoming a focus for additional shower and thunderstorms chances. The front could be forced further south depending on the amount of storm activity. Mid/upper ridging will begin to have a bigger influence on the area by late in the week with most areas remaining dry. Temperatures will start to rise late in the week and into the weekend. A subtle shortwave trough may bring a chance of showers and storms to the area this weekend with mostly dry weather conditions lingering into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Windy conditions are expected to continue through the entirety of the TAF period. A tight pressure gradient as a result of a strong low pressure in Eastern Colorado is promoting strong southerly to southeasterly winds across the area this evening. Winds are expected to remain out of the south with sustained winds around 20 to 25 knot and gusts around 30 to 40 knots through the nighttime hours and for much of the day tomorrow. Areas of blowing dust within the vicinity of recently plowed fields may reduce visibility in very localized areas. However, most areas may see, at worst, visibility around 5 to 7SM. Also, MVFR cigs are possible Tuesday morning (as soon as 11-12Z) across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas primarily impacting KICT, KHUT, KCNU, and surrounding areas. MVFR cigs should be brief, and VFR conditions should return by 16Z Tuesday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>051-067-068. Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032- 033-047>049. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...JC