520
FXUS63 KICT 200538
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms still expected this evening across the Flint Hills into
  southeast KS with a few strong/severe storms possible.

- Above normal temps once again forecast for Friday with highs
  in the upper 90s to around 100 across south central and
  southeast KS.

- Increasing shower/storm chances for the weekend with the Sat
  night-Sun time frame looking like that best chance for most
  of the area to get wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave impulse
tracking across southern Manitoba with another upper low about
to come onshore over Southern CA. At the surface, cold front
extends from eastern Nebraska into central KS.

A few storms developed early this afternoon across southeast KS
in an area of strong mid level moisture transport with this
activity about to move out of the forecast area. Still looking
for additional development by early this evening along the cold
front/trough with current thinking that the initial development
maybe over north central OK. Any storm that develops southeast
of the KS Turnpike will have a good chance to be severe given
2,000-2,500J/KG of CAPE and effective deep shear of 35-40kts.

For Fri into Fri evening, West Coast upper low will track from
Southern CA into the Desert Southwest. In response we will get
back into some return flow across the area on Fri as what is
left of the cold front washes out. Confidence in storm chances
is very low for Fri. There will be plenty of instability by the
afternoon but surface convergence and especially upper support
isn`t that great. At this time, feel the better storm chances
will be Fri night across mainly eastern KS where 850-700mb
moisture transport will be maximized.

By Sat afternoon, there is good model agreement in the upper low
tracking over the Four Corners region and across the Central
Rockies Sat night. At the same time a stationary front will
stretch from Eastern Nebraska into northwest KS. Still looking
for the most widespread shower and storm activity Sat-Sat
evening to be tied to the front with this feature expected to
move through the forecast area from early Sun morning through
early Sun evening. Feel that this is when most of our forecast
area will get wet with this system.

By Mon morning the upper impulse will be tracking into IA with
cold front exiting the forecast area. Still looking for highs in
the 70s for both Mon and Tue with a gradual warm-up as we head
into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

In general, VFR conditions expected to prevail through at least
00Z this evening, then chances for showers and storms will be on
the increase during the last 6 hours of the TAF period.

From now through about mid-morning, winds are expected to be
light and variable across the area as the frontal boundary that
stalled across the area on Thursday washes out. Eventually by
midday or into the earl afternoon hours, winds should be
uniformly out of the south or southeast at around 10 to 15
knots. Gusts up to 25 knots cannot be ruled out.

By around 00Z this evening, attention will turn towards
southern/southwest Kansas for shower and thunderstorm
development. This activity is expected to be isolated to widely
scattered coverage-wise, and should move northeast during the
evening and nighttime hours. Currently, confidence is somewhat
low that this activity will impact any TAF sites. However,
changes are possible in the next TAF issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC