345
FXUS63 KICT 212343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous/widespread showers with embedded storms tonight.

- Much cooler for Sunday with lingering showers/storms.

- Mild days/cool nights for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A strong signal for a welcome rainfall event ramping up early
this evening generally west of I-135 before spreading eastward
overnight thru Sunday across the rest of central and eastern
Kansas. An area of convection was moving out across the northern
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles at early afternoon well ahead of the
approaching upper trof just southwest of the Four Corners
region. While clouds have inhibited warming somewhat earlier in
the day, late afternoon sun/heating should result in mlcape
values around 1500 j/kg over parts of the area in the presence
of moderate deep layer shear. This should support a few strong
to marginally severe storms early this evening. Otherwise,
stronger forcing for ascent will move across the area overnight
in advance of the upper shortwave trof. Fairly high precipitable
water values (around 2") will lend to efficient rainfall from
any storms, especially along/west of the Kansas turnpike
corridor through early Sunday morning. The good news is that
some of this looks to fall over the drought-stricken areas of
south central Kansas just west and northwest of Wichita. The
main theme on Sunday will be much cooler weather with lingering
showers and perhaps a few storms on gusty northerly winds.

A residual weak upper trof will linger over the central Plains
into Monday before being kicked eastward as a northern stream
upper trof settles southward across the northern Plains into the
Midwest on Tuesday. The medium range consensus seems to support
developing this into a cutoff low meandering somewhere over
Kansas or the central conus later in the week as a blocking
pattern (ridge aloft) building over the Upper Midwest/northern
Great Lakes. Overall, while moderating some, this looks to keep
temperatures a bit below seasonal climo thru the week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Main aviation concerns will be storms tonight with lowering
cigs toward morning.

Upper low continues to spin over the Four Corners region with
upper diffluence starting to spread over the Plains. Large area
of persistent 850-700mb moisture transport remains in place from
Western OK into Northeast KS. This will keep showers and storms
going for much of the area for the next several hours, with
KICT-HUT-KSLN having the best chance to see widespread showers
and storms through 06z. Looking for cigs to lower toward sunrise
as cooler air starts to work-in from the north with high
confidence in at least MVFR ceilings at KHUT-KICT-KSLN after
09z and remaining through most of the day. Not out of the
question there maybe some pockets of IFR cigs mixed-in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell on Sunday.
The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast
calling for mid-upper 50s.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...RBL
CLIMATE...ADK