040
FXUS63 KICT 170711
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
211 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Best chances for showers and storms tonight into Wednesday,
  then again this weekend.

- Seasonably warm until the weekend, with heat indices near 100
  degrees on Thursday and Friday.

- Much cooler temperatures coming this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning indicates a strong mid/upper trough
beginning to lift over the Desert Southwest. A line of showers and
storms driven by 700 mb WAA continues to make its way east. Similar
to previous mornings, these are expected to diurnally fizzle out
after sunrise and are not expected to be severe.

PRECIPITATION...

Skies should clear for most of the area today following this
morning`s convection in portions of central Kansas. Later tonight
the upper trough is progged to lift to the northeast into the
Northern Plains. This will bring a Pacific front through the Central
Plains that will provide forcing for widespread convection in
western KS. Current CAM guidance suggests a few of these should make
it into central and south central KS by Wednesday morning, though
coverage at this time appears to be scattered at best. Weak flow
aloft should preclude chances for severe weather with this activity.
A second opportunity for showers and storms will arise later
Wednesday evening as a dryline sets up over west central Kansas.
Still a bit uncertain regarding the eastward propagation of this
boundary, but the best chances for precip at this point appear to
lie in far south central Kansas.

Mid-level WAA will allow for additional rain chances both Thursday
and Friday mornings before an even stronger upper trough rolls in
off the High Plains this weekend. This will push a cold front
through the Central Plains and provide yet another opportunity for
widespread showers and storms. Stay tuned as details regarding this
next major system come into focus.

TEMPERATURES...

Seasonably warm high temperatures (upper 80s to near 90) are
expected to dominate the scene today and tomorrow before above-
average highs (middle to upper 90s) arrive on Thursday and Friday.
In addition to this late-week heat, afternoon dewpoints in the
middle to upper 60s across the forecast area will provide an
opportunity for heat indices approaching 100 degrees, especially in
southern KS.

The arrival of the cold front this weekend will bring a taste of
fall to Kansas, with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 70s to
begin next week.|

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Weakening showers and storms may continue to fester through
08-09Z over portions of central Kansas with some transient MVFR
cigs possible at times under the heavier activity. Some low
clouds may impact parts of south central and southeast KS during
the predawn hours with some MVFR or IFR but confidence in how
widespread this activity will become remains rather low. VFR is
expected to prevail as we move into the mid to late morning
hours with breezy southeasterly winds developing once again.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM