651
FXUS63 KICT 142332
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small AM shower/storm chances for central KS next few days.

- Unseasonably warm at times into the upcoming week.

- Somewhat better rain/storm chances for more areas later in
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Mid-level baroclinic zone situated across mid/central Kansas to
remain a focus for mainly morning convective chances the next
couple days with aid of modest early morning level jet over
west central Kansas. Despite rather weak steering flow aloft,
decent mid-level lapse rates may help yield cape values near
1000 j/kg for perhaps a couple pesky strong storms. All said,
coverage could vary from isolated to scattered, so most will
probably not see much, if any rainfall. Otherwise, the afternoon
hours will remain warm to unseasonably warm with a bit more
humidity as we go into the coming week. The more organized deep
convection will be focused over the central high Plains through
early next week as well. However, as we go into the mid-week
periods, a significant portion of the evolving longwave western
conus trof will eject northeastward by Tuesday night from the
northern Rockies across the northern Plains. This should allow
more organized convection to move across portions of central
Kansas to perhaps the Flint Hills into Wednesday morning. The
upstream kicker looks to effectively reload the western conus
upper trof as it digs across California and the Great Basin
Wednesday into Thursday. A rather moist unstable regime will
remain in place across the area, especially central Kansas later
in the week. So will maintain slight/modest convective chances,
though perhaps somewhat better chances may arrive depending on
the eastward movement of the western trof and the associated
surface cold front.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions will persist this evening with weakening
southeast winds. Similar to this morning low clouds are expected
to develop across southeast Kansas and slide to the northwest
Sunday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible but
confidence on how far west this cloud deck makes it remains low
at this time hence CNU is the only site with a low cloud mention
in the TAF at this time. A band of showers and thunderstorms may
also develop across central Kansas around daybreak however
confidence on where this band will develop remains below 30%. If
this activity develops it will have the potential to impact GBD,
RSL, and SLN. Low clouds will dissipate by late tomorrow morning
with VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...WI