![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
120 FXUS63 KICT 252337 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 637 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, some storms could be locally strong or severe - A cooler but still a hot day expected for Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 An area of showers and cloud cover over South Central Kansas this morning is slowing down temperatures rise. This cloud cover will not hang around too long and once it clears, temperatures are expected to sky rocket into the upper 90s and low 100s. Tds are remain in the 70s which will create heat indices in the 103 to 110 range over much of the area. Late this afternoon, a weak frontal system will be pushing into the region. Shear values and upper level support is paltry at best but low level moisture and lapse rates are rather good. Given this combination of factors, thunderstorm activity is expected later this afternoon and into the overnight. Intensity of this thunderstorm activity is more difficult to nail down. At this time, wide spread severe thunderstorm activity is not expected with the best chances for severe thunderstorms is expected to remain to the north and east of the CWA. As such, strong thunderstorms with a few isolated severe thunderstorms appears to be the general theme this afternoon. The main threat from this activity will be very heavy rain and brief gusty downburst winds up to 60 mph. Residence time of any thunderstorm activity looks to be fairly short so wide spread flooding issues except in the unlikely event of training storms. As such, flooding is expected to be isolated and short lived. Wednesday subsidence will return to the region but the atmospheric make up will be a little cooler and drier. While temperatures will not breech the century mark, temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year. Thursday and Friday, the humidity will return bring another chance for very hot days and with high heat indices. Thursday does not look like it will reach the century mark but Friday is beginning to look like a very hot day which may reach excessive heat criteria. The main issue here is the proximity of the next front which is expected to arrive Friday afternoon. This front is stronger than today`s front which puts the very high temperatures for Friday in doubt. As such, held off on the excessive heat watch for this forecast cycle. Cooler temperatures are expected for the weekend but they will still be above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Storms have developed south of ICT and should remain south the terminal. Additional storms across eastern NE/IA are forecast to develop into a line and approach CNU towards dawn Wednesday. Adjusted the PROB30 group at CNU to account for this delayed arrival. Otherwise, a weak cold front will move into the area tomorrow morning, shifting winds to the north near 10 kt. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...BRB