477
FXUS63 KICT 031134
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this morning, some could be strong and
produce small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Additional storms expected tonight, some could be strong to severe
with up to quarter sized hail, up to 70 mph winds gusts, and locally
heavy rainfall.

- Additional strong to severe storm chances are expected the
afternoon and evening of Independence day along and east of the
Flint Hills.

- Near to slightly below average temperatures expected over the
  next week or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows broad
mid/upper troughing across the northern plains, and upper air
analysis suggests Kansas remains in the right entrance region of jet
max over the Midwest. With the help of upper level diffluence,
showers and storms are developing across southwest and far southern
Kansas this morning. This activity is expected to spread north and
east through the morning hours. While these storms are expected to
stay sub-severe, we can`t rule out a few stronger storms producing
dime to nickel sized hail and gusty winds given 1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE across the area. PWATs around 2 inches will allow for high
rainfall rates, so localized flooding cannot be ruled out as well.
Storm chances should gradually wane from west to east this
afternoon, but another round of storms is forecast to develop across
the High Plains.

A strong MCS is expected to develop across the High Plains this
afternoon, but there is still quite of bit of uncertainty about how
far east this complex will stay organized enough to produce severe
weather. Currently, it appears as though showers and storms across
southern and eastern Kansas during the day today will limit
sufficient instability to central Kansas. That being said,
instability across the area doesn`t completely diminish, and a
strong enough LLJ could support strong to marginally severe storms
overnight across the remainder of the forecast area. However, the
main concern for up to quarter-sized hail and up to 70 mph wind
gusts will likely be limited to the I-70 corridor between Russell
and Salina.

A frontal boundary is expected to reside across southern and eastern
Kansas in the wake of thunderstorm activity from late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. Should showers and storms clear
out enough Thursday, diurnal heating along the front and continued
synoptic support in the form of upper level diffluence will allow
for another round of storm development for areas along and east of
the Flint Hills. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, and
will likely impact any afternoon or evening Independence Day plans.
Storm chances gradually diminish overnight Thursday night, and the
area will see a bit of a break on Friday.

Additional storm chances are forecast from late Saturday night
through late Sunday night, but the main story for much of the
forecast period will be cooler temperatures expected across the
area. Temperatures from today through next Tuesday are expected to
remain at or just below average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A rather busy TAF period is expected across the area.

This morning, a broad shield of stratiform rain is
overspreading much of the area. However, there are embedded
scattered thunderstorms within this area of light to moderate
rain. At times, vis and cig cats could drop to MVFR or IFR,
though these conditions are likely to be intermittent.

Gradually, showers and storms should move off to the east by
early this afternoon, but attention turns towards the High
Plains for additional storm chances tonight. A more organized
complex of storms is expected to move in from the west, but will
be weakening as it enters into portions of central Kansas around
03Z. The main concerns for KRSL and KGBD will be the potential
of up to quarter size hail and 50 to 60-knot wind gusts. Further
south and east, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
the primary concern.

Surface winds through the TAF period were quite tricky to
forecast, but it appears that light and variable winds will
become more uniform out of the south by this afternoon. Then,
late in the TAF period, winds will gradually shift from southern
to northerly as front starts passing through the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC