771
FXUS63 KICT 260525
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat this afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, some
storms could be locally strong or severe

- A cooler but still a hot day expected for Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

An area of showers and cloud cover over South Central Kansas this
morning is slowing down temperatures rise.  This cloud cover will
not hang around too long and once it clears, temperatures are
expected to sky rocket into the upper 90s and low 100s.  Tds are
remain in the 70s which will create heat indices in the 103 to 110
range over much of the area.  Late this afternoon, a weak frontal
system will be pushing into the region. Shear values and upper level
support is paltry at best but low level moisture and lapse rates are
rather good.  Given this combination of factors, thunderstorm
activity is expected later this afternoon and into the overnight.
Intensity of this thunderstorm activity is more difficult to nail
down. At this time, wide spread severe thunderstorm activity is not
expected with the best chances for severe thunderstorms is expected
to remain to the north and east of the CWA.  As such, strong
thunderstorms with a few isolated severe thunderstorms appears to be
the general theme this afternoon. The main threat from this activity
will be very heavy rain and brief gusty downburst winds up to 60
mph.  Residence time of any thunderstorm activity looks to be fairly
short so wide spread flooding issues except in the unlikely event
of training storms.  As such, flooding is expected to be isolated
and short lived.

Wednesday subsidence will return to the region but the atmospheric
make up will be a little cooler and drier.  While temperatures will
not breech the century mark, temperatures will remain above normal
for this time of year.

Thursday and Friday, the humidity will return bring another chance
for very hot days and with high heat indices.  Thursday does not
look like it will reach the century mark but Friday is beginning to
look like a very hot day which may reach excessive heat criteria.
The main issue here is the proximity of the next front which is
expected to arrive Friday afternoon.  This front is stronger than
today`s front which puts the very high temperatures for Friday in
doubt.  As such, held off on the excessive heat watch for this
forecast cycle.  Cooler temperatures are expected for the weekend
but they will still be above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A weak cold front will move southward across the area late
tonight through early Wednesday morning. A convective complex
dropping south-southeast from the lower Missouri Valley may clip
far southeast Kansas toward dawn, so have inserted VCTS at KCNU.
Otherwise, the main impact of the front will be the wind shift.
VFR conditions expected thru forecast valid period, except in
any convection.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...KED