109
FXUS63 KICT 300825
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Training storms across south central KS this morning resulting in
  localized flooding concerns

- Additional storms expected today across central KS

- Much cooler today; heat returns Monday and Tuesday

- Active weather pattern continues into next week including the
  chance for severe storms Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

As of 3 AM, a complex, yet signifcant, mesoscale setup was emerging
across southern KS. A stalled surface frontal zone extended from
west TX into central OK and northeast from there. Latest VWP from
ICT reveals nearly 180 degrees of veering from 925 through 700 mb,
suggesting moderate to strong WAA ocurring. Elevated instability
upwards of 2000 J/kg is analyzed across southern KS with PW values
remain near/above 2". All of these ingredients sum up to the
likelihood for heavy rainfall. To further enhance the potential for
flooding, mean storm motions are parallel to the converence zone.
Given the latest radar and satellite trends with a persistent axis
of convection across portions of south central KS, hoisted a Flood
Watch through noon.

While WAA may decrease through the morning hours, a remnant MCV
across northeastern NM is forecast to lift into KS today. This
should result in additional showers and storms, especially across
central KS. Again, the high PW environment may support heavy
rainfall. The showers/storms and associated cloud cover will provide
heat relief area-wide today with temperatuers in the 70s/80s.

The heat will return area-wide Monday and Tuesday as the front
retreats northward and midlevel ridging amplifies overhead.
Temperatures will once again approach the 100 degree mark. A
northern stream trough will shunt the frontal zone southward into
our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will set the stage for
another break from the heat and additional storm chances through
Thursday. The greatest chance for severe storms appears to arrive
Tuesday afternoon/evening.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across portions
of central and south central KS. The highest coverage should
remain across south central KS through sunrise. More-widespread
convection is expected after 10-12Z across central KS. The
daytime convection Sunday should dwindle by mid to late
afternoon. Winds will remain relatively light and from
the northeast.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ067-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRB
AVIATION...BRB