644
FXUS63 KICT 241905
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers this afternoon and evening across
  southeast Kansas, but dry for most.

- Slightly warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Rain chances return to southeast Kansas by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates an upper jet nosing
south across the Plains that has helped to touch off a few showers
making their way across portions of central and eastern Kansas. At
the surface, a relatively weak cold front stretches from the Texas
Panhandle to the Upper Mississippi River Valley and continues to
push to the southeast.

Slightly warmer daytime temperatures (middle 70s to lower 80s) are
expected through the weekend despite today`s cold front thanks to
westerly downslope flow. The global deterministic suite remains in
agreement that the upper trough currently tracking over the Plains
will become a cutoff semi-stationary low somewhere over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. The location of this stallout will play a
factor into what happens later on this week. A placement further
east (e.g. over Tennessee) would support a warmer and drier pattern
for the forecast area, while placement further west (e.g. over the
Ozark Plateau) would support cooler and wetter conditions for the
region. Though uncertainty for both scenarios remains high, the
consensus is that the best chances for meaningful rain through the
weekend will lie in southeast Kansas, especially if the oncoming
tropical system manages to supply additional moisture to this
already-potent system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers (20%) will continue across mainly east central
and southeast KS through the afternoon and early evening hours.
KSLN to KCNU have the greatest chances of seeing this activity.
Can`t rule out a brief thunderstorm with gusty winds especially
across southeast KS as we get into the later afternoon and
evening. Given scattered nature will amend sites as needed to
include precip chance.

Otherwise, VFR conditions and light and variable winds will
continue through much of the forecast period before settling to
northerly by end of TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...KMB