Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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689 FXUS63 KICT 191123 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for showers and storms this morning and later today mainly along and east of Interstate 35. - Warm today and tomorrow. - Much cooler temperatures coming this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning indicates a 100-kt upper jet over the Four Corners region. One trough sits over the Canadian Plains, while another spins just off the California coast. At the surface, a surface trough continues to extend from South Dakota and into western Kansas. A few showers have tried to develop this morning across central and southeast Kansas out ahead of a strengthening LLJ. PRECIPITATION... Chances for a few isolated showers will hold on through the morning hours today thanks to persistent mid-level WAA. Highest confidence lies in north central Kansas and along/east of Interstate 35. After a brief break, chances will return this afternoon as the aforementioned surface trough encounters a moisture axis oriented along and to the east of Interstate 35 once again by late afternoon. Short-term CAM guidance suggests moderate instability (1500+ J/kg) and shear (30-40 kts), so the primary concerns with the strongest storms will be wind gusts up to 60 mph and half-dollar sized hail. The return of the LLJ Friday evening will provide the next chance for showers across central KS, especially in areas along and north of US-50. Much better chances for rain will come Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front associated with a strong upper trough in the Northern Plains makes its way south across Nebraska and Kansas. Still looks at this time like the best chances lie in northern portions of Kansas. TEMPERATURES... Afternoon high temperatures well above average will prevail across the forecast area today and tomorrow in south central and southeast Kansas, with the warmest temperatures at or above 100 degrees along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. A notable cooldown will come with the arrival of the cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning, with widespread highs in the low to middle 70s to start next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Widely scattered storms will linger during the early morning hours across parts of south central and southeast Kansas. Cloud bases are around 10k ft so VFR is expected to prevail but a brief shower may drive visibilities to MVFR briefly. LLWS conditions are expected to linger trough around 14Z at our central KS TAF sites. A weak frontal boundary/trough axis at the surface will build eastward to around the Kansas Turnpike late this afternoon before stalling. Wind in it`s wake will shift to the southwest. Winds will gradually veer to the northwest as we move into the evening and overnight hours over central and portions of south central KS while southerly winds will prevail in southeast KS. Another round of storms will be possible across southeast KS late this afternoon and evening with a VCTS mention at KCNU after 22Z. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...MWM