691
FXUS62 KILM 220035
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
835 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical disturbance will track inland around the northern
Florida and southern Georgia coasts this evening. A warming
trend will then begin Saturday with an extended period of heat,
humidity, and diurnal convection through the middle of next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Showers are becoming more isolated with the loss of daytime
heating. Expect inland areas to become dry overnight with patchy
fog, mainly inland.

Surf forecast has been updated and the associated CFW products
have been expired or re-issued.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered to the northeast over the western
Atlantic will continue to slowly shift eastward through Saturday as
a tropical disturbance moves inland along the N FL/S GA coasts this
evening. Lingering showers/isolated storms this evening will end due
to loss of diurnal heating but additional showers could impact
mostly coastal areas later tonight as weak coastal troughing
develops. Some fog is expected inland later tonight due to
increasing low-level moisture and light winds, which could become
locally dense. Any fog will dissipate quickly around daybreak with
mostly coastal showers transitioning inland with even a few rumbles
of thunder possible. However, rainfall will be limited in any one
place and thus we are not expecting a washout by any means.

Lows tonight should mostly be near to slightly above normal in the
lower to mid 70s. Highs Saturday should be a bit warmer as the flow
begins to turn southerly, generally ranging from the mid to upper
80s closer to the coast (with peak heat indices in the lower to mid
90s) to lower to mid 90s inland (with peak heat indices near 100
degrees).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge will push to the west as a northwest
flow develops across our area through early week. There appears to
be a decent chance of convection both Sunday and Monday afternoon
via basically more mesoscale features although some spin is noted in
high resolution guidance Sunday probably from the tropical entity.
Temperatures will be on the increase with middle to upper 90s inland
cooler along the coast and a return to middle 70s for lows. Residual
higher dewpoints courtesy of the tropical wave along with these
temperatures may necessitate a heat advisory Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall the major components of the extended forecast
remain in place. These consist of a brief northwest flow aloft
relaxing in time along with very warm temperatures with perhaps an
increasing chance for convection late. The warmest day will be
Wednesday where the possibility of triple digit heat remains
(inland) although probably not widespread. There continues to be
some support for a decent rainfall event next Friday via mid level
troughing and of course a stalling front this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR inland this evening as lingering showers and mid level
clouds dissipate. Along the coast, periods of MVFR clouds will
develop in onshore flow prior to midnight with a better chance
of dissipation overnight. These are likely to be temporary with
the prevailing conditions being VFR.

Increasing confidence in fog development tonight due to a
combination of rainfall earlier today and winds becoming calm
prior to sunrise. Onshore flow with dew points in the upper 60s
and low 70s are likely to produce patchy dense fog, mainly
inland. Have kept ILM in the fog, but confidence near the coast
is low as onshore flow could produce mainly low clouds.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms expected
tomorrow afternoon.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low
clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Atlantic high pressure centered to the northeast
will prevail as a tropical disturbance pushes inland along the N
FL/S GA coasts tonight. Winds/seas will generally improve as the
pressure gradient slackens off the Carolina coast.

Saturday night through Wednesday...A south to southwesterly
flow will be in place a good part of the period with the
strongest winds late Sunday into Monday via enhanced low level
jetting probably ending up in the lower end of a 15-20 knot
range. Outside of this 10-15 knots will be the case. A brief
offshore direction is noted Tuesday but the more synoptic flow
southerly flow will quickly jump back into place. Significant
seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is in effect
today for Pender, New Hanover, Horry, and Georgetown County
beaches, as well as Ocean Isle Beach west in Brunswick, due to
ESE swell and full moon. Although Oak Island and the south side
of Bald Head Island should see weak rip activity today, the rip
current risk will be higher for the western half of Brunswick
and therefore a moderate risk is in effect for the county. Rip
risk will improve to moderate for east facing beaches on
Saturday as the ESE swell weakens, with a low risk forecasted
for all beaches Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJB
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM