624
FXUS62 KILM 241959
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
359 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to prevail through mid week with generally low
rain chances. More unsettled weather is expected later Thursday
through Friday as Helene passes west of the forecast area.
Nevertheless, look for possible impacts such as heavy rain,
gusty winds and coastal flooding. Cooler and drier high pressure
should then return later in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Diffuse frontal boundary to our west will lift north tonight and
take these scattered showers along with it. This will allow for a
warmer afternoon tomorrow as light southerly winds weakly advect
warmth and moisture into the area. The smallest of POPs...sub 20s
will be confined to far western zones during the late afternoon
whilst other areas remain rain-free.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning
and rain chances along with it. The main swath of tropical moisture
due to Helene will move into the forecast area from south to north
late Thursday, PWATs increasing to 2-2.5". Showers and storms with
heavy rain should be expected late Thursday through Friday with
whatever remains of Helene west of our area. The forecast currently
calls for 2-4" with locally higher amounts. Additional expected
impacts are +25 mph wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and minor
coastal flooding across SC/NC beaches and the Lower Cape Fear River.
Marine conditions are covered in the marine discussion below. These
impacts could change based on the track Helene takes over the next
several days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Drier conditions expected for at least Saturday as tropical moisture
leaves the area and we sit in subsidence behind the low, dry air
moving into the mid-levels. Rain chances will slowly return late
this weekend into early next week as moisture returns and ridging
breaks down aloft, temperatures near seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shower coverage will continue to wane this afternoon and VFR
expected. Models vary quite a bit regarding both fog and stratus-so
based upon previous few nights went a bit lower than blended
guidance but not the full LIFR of the more pessimistic solutions
Suspect IFR may be worst case and most likely  at inland terminals
FLO and LBT.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions expected outside of predawn
fog and stratus. Helene will likely pass west of the area
Thursday night through Friday bringing a high chance for
restrictions and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Southerly winds will remain light through the
period as a weak boundary lifts north of the area. Wind waves will
be minimal but the easterly swell persisting will keep seas in the 3
ft range.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions will come to an
end late Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens with what
remains of Helene pushing inland to our west based on the current
track. +6 ft seas and +25 kt wind gusts will become established with
the possibility for Gale Force gusts, primarily Thursday night into
Friday morning. Showers and storms with heavy rain should be
expected late Thursday through Friday as the main swath of moisture
moves through. Should Helene track further east conditions could
worsen for the coastal waters. Winds and seas should start to
subside into Saturday with sub-SCA conditions returning for the
weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Mostly minor coastal flooding remains a threat for the next
several days, especially in NC. However, Helene could bring
additional coastal flooding later this week depending on its
track/strength as it moves northward from the Gulf of Mexico
through the region.

The beaches are currently expected to reach minor flooding
levels (advisory criteria) during the afternoon high tide today
and Wednesday.

Minor flooding is expected to occur along the Lower Cape Fear River
during each high tide over the next several days due to
continued upstream waters working their way down the river
combining with the high astronomical tides. Coastal flooding
along the Lower Cape Fear River will impact Downtown Wilmington
and possibly Brunswick County on the west side of the river,
especially during afternoon high tides.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107-
     109.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...