891
FXUS62 KILM 230625
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
225 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures and thunderstorm chances will increase over the
next few days. A weak front will stall across the eastern
Carolinas Tuesday, but should return inland Wednesday. Typical
summertime weather is expected much of the coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Spotty showers with localized heavy rain have dissipated along
the coast but a few continue inland across Lumberton and the Pee
Dee region. These should quickly dry up this evening as the
boundary layer stabilizes. Speed convergence within humid
onshore wind at the coast has resulted in some low
stratocumulus which may continue overnight.

The biggest change with this forecast update was adjusting
forecast low temps up 1-2 degrees, especially along the coast,
where at least a few mph of onshore wind should continue through
daybreak. A new wave of showers associated with tropical
disturbance 91L may reach Georgetown and parts of the Grand
Strand before 8 AM Sunday and I`ve nudged forecast PoPs up 10
percent in this area very late tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail as a weak tropical disturbance
near the GA coast slowly shifts northward and weakens. Lingering
showers/isolated storms this evening will end due to loss of diurnal
heating but additional showers could impact the coast late tonight
where the best moisture convergence should occur. Increasing low-
level winds should prevent much fog tonight but models suggest some
could develop inland, especially in NC where low clouds are more
likely. Coastal showers should transition inland Sunday with even a
few rumbles of thunder possible. Severe storms are not expected but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to minor
flooding.

Lows tonight should be a bit above normal, generally in the lower to
mid 70s except upper 70s at the coast. Highs Sunday should be close
to normal near the coast but a bit above normal inland, ranging from
the mid to upper 80s at the coast to lower to mid 90s inland.
Although there is some uncertainty regarding how much dewpoints
lower during the day, we think max heat indices will mostly fall
below our Heat Advisory levels of 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level trough and attendant cold front will move
across Monday with expected good coverage of showers and
thunderstorms late in the day. Still unsure of severe potential but
with the trough some decent shear should be available along with
good instability. Tuesday should be drier but can`t rule out
isolated activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Decent chance for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday via decent agreement with the global guidance.
This as another cold front/mid level trough combination move across.
BEyond this nothing really special or noteworthy with temperatures
in expected ranges.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued potential for occasional MVFR stratocu ceilings at
MYR and CRE terminals and possibly ILM, due to these low clouds
moving onshore thru early this morning. MVFR stratus ceilings
may develop across KFLO and KLBT early this morning then
transition to a VFR Cu/Stratocu field by mid daytime morning.

The remnants of tropical disturbance 91L will lift north along
the Carolina coasts today, adding to the shower and tstorm
potential along with an increase in coverage. Kept going with
previous fcst timing with shra/tsra activity highest along the
coastal terminals during this morning, shifting inland this
afternoon and evening.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low
clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...
The central Carolina waters will remain between
Atlantic high pressure to the east and an inland trough. Although
winds/seas will increase a bit Sunday due to the increasing pressure
gradient we don`t expect the need for a Small Craft Advisory.

Sunday Night through Thursday...
Expect a period of stronger southwest winds Monday in a
range of 15-20 knots ahead of a cold front. A brief period of weak
offshore winds early Tuesday will be followed by a typical summer
pattern of south to southeast winds. Significant seas of 2-4 feet
can be expected.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RJB/SHK