Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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055 FXUS62 KILM 210547 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 147 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Forecast dries out completely just in time for the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just above seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain chances look to return by the middle of next week with the next frontal system. && .UPDATE... Forecast updated to extend coastal flood headlines due to high confidence in reaching criteria midday tomorrow...moderate flooding near the WLON7 gauge and minor flooding along the beaches. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Weak high pressure basically east of the Appalachians remains in control this evening although the overall column continues to show some decent moisture. This led to good coverage of fog and stratus this morning and should do so once again Saturday. Moisture decreases further Saturday and weakly-forced showers are unlikely to develop. Tonight`s lows will be in the middle 60s with highs Saturday similar to today`s values in the middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... No major forecast changes but have slightly increased rain chances late Sunday into Sunday night over SE NC. We`ll be sitting in largely northerly flow coming down and around the mountains when a shortwave looks to push through late Sunday. The issue will be the dry mid-levels, so have increased chances but still kept areas over land dry. Could see this changing with future updates, but not expecting large rainfall totals regardless. Otherwise, should see some warming ahead of this disturbance with highs Sunday getting into the mid to upper 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid 60s with slight warming and increasing cloud cover leading to lows in the mid to upper 60s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Conditions should remain quiet under ridging high pressure until the middle of next week where moisture starts to increase due to a frontal system to our west. Regardless of when the front from this system reaches the area, expecting increasing rain chances and warming temperatures ahead of it. Guidance remains messy with the area of development in the Caribbean and even moreso with the disturbance behind it. To put something out there, ensembles seem to be agreeing that there will be some area of low pressure of questionable strength nearing or around the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the long term period, but this could change with subsequent updates to the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR to dominate this 06Z TAF Issuance period, except for a small window early this morning that could yield MVFR and possibly IFR fog conditions, mainly across the inland terminals. At the coastal terminals, a periodic 2k or less foot sct/bkn deck may occur. Otherwise, upper ridge axis to remain west of the area this period. Weak sfc ridge axis to extend down the east coast this period. Sfc pg rather on the relaxed side, with light NE winds dominating except for weak resultant wind, ie. sea breeze, this aftn/evening. Extended Outlook...Dry through at least Tuesday with VFR conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR from fog/stratus remains possible. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Persistent conditions across the coastal waters tonight and Saturday. Winds will be from the north in a range of 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet for the most part but may see a slight increase later Saturday with 2-4 feet. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Winds will generally be E/NE becoming more onshore in the afternoons with the sea breeze, speeds in the 10-15 kt range. Waveheights generally 2-3 ft with some 4 footers possible ~20 nm out from the SE NC coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend into Monday with high astronomical tides and a modest northeast flow. The beaches seem secure for advisory criteria while downtown Wilmington may reach warning criteria another midday cycle or two. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107-109. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107-109. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MAS NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...SHK/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM