089
FXUS62 KILM 162008
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
408 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain a threat into tonight
as the low continues inland, with improving conditions into
early Tuesday due to drier air building in. Warm conditions with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through
mid week. A weak cold front will bring more seasonable
temperatures beginning towards the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will move inland tonight and showers and a few storms
will gradually diminish from east to west overnight.  The heavy rain
threat continues in the flood watch area except for Georgetown
County which will be removed from the watch.  Tuesday will see
improving conditions with a small chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms.  Lows tonight will fall to the mid 60s to around 70.
Highs Tuesday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Over the short term period the remnant low of PTC 8 will dissipate
to our NW. The remaining trough axis will pass back overhead Wed
with enough lingering moisture to keep rain/thunder chances in the
forecast through the end of the period. Lows in the mid to upper 60s
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trough axis will remain in the area with periodic shortwaves
moving through aloft. This unsettled pattern will lead to the
possibility of showers/thunderstorms through the end of the work
week. A front may move through later in the period bringing
relatively drier air, but confidence is low on timing. Temperatures
will cool to near seasonable towards the end of the period due
to the passing front.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mix of MVFR and IFR across the region this afternoon will persist
into the evening as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 lingers in the
region. Gusty winds will gradually abate, particularly during the
late afternoon into the evenings but CIGS may not improve until
after daybreak Tuesday.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR possible early each morning through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday... Expect rapidly improving conditions tonight
into Tuesday as tropical storm conditions abate after the low
moves inland. By Tuesday, expect S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT
and seas continuing to subside to 3 to 4 FT by afternoon.

Tuesday Night through Saturday... Southerly flow around 10 kts is
expected through a majority of the work week until a front moves
through, winds becoming light and northerly. Significant seas around
3-4 feet with the dominant swell being 2-3 feet out of the east at 9-
10 seconds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated astronomical tides, strong northeast winds and large
swells in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
will cause elevated water levels along the coasts of SE NC and
NE SC leading to minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding at
times early this week.

Other - Rip Currents:
Easterly swells will cause a high risk of rip currents for all
beaches today. Persistent northeasterly winds will produce
moderate to strong longshore currents.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108-110.
     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ054>056-058.
     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for SCZ024-033-054-058-059.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...31
MARINE...III/LEW/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...