Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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301 FXUS61 KILN 171738 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 138 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Remnant tropical low pressure will stall over the southern Appalachians tonight through Wednesday, bringing a few light showers southeast of Interstate 71. Otherwise, dry weather will persist under weak high pressure into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Large scale pattern tonight will consist of mid-level ridging centered over the central Plains with troughing over the Appalachians. Decaying tropical low at the base of this trough will be nearly stationary during the period. Clouds and some light showers will remain generally across our southeast associated with the decaying low. A dry atmosphere to the north and west will otherwise provide warm and dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in the lower 80s. Guidance continues to show a decreasing trend in the clouds and PoPs Wednesday night. This will cause more efficient radiational cooling conditions leading to lows dipping into the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure remains in place over the northeastern CONUS through Saturday night. This synoptic setup will allow for dry conditions and above average temperatures to persist across the Ohio Valley. Forecast highs remain in the 80s. Forecast lows through the end of the week range from near 60 Thursday night to the lower 60s by Saturday night. The surface high is expected to shift further east by Sunday into the start of next week. Winds are forecast to take on a more southwesterly direction as this occurs. This shift in wind direction may allow a subtle increase in moisture across the Ohio Valley although rain chances remain less than 30% each day due to lack of forcing. Unless a low pressure system forms in the Plains, it may be difficult to squeeze out any widespread rainfall despite above average PWATs next week. Above average temperatures likely continue. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weakening low pressure system approaching from the southeast will provide an increase in mid and high level clouds through the day into the evening with lower clouds around 5000 feet overnight. A few light rain showers or sprinkles will be possible southeast of I-71 this afternoon into this evening, but should generally remain to the southeast of the TAF sites. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...