Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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112 FXUS61 KILN 310154 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 954 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions through Friday. An unsettled pattern is expected from late Saturday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Tranquil weather conditions overnight across the Ohio Valley thanks to surface high pressure. Not expecting as much river fog formation tonight given the drier air. Seasonably cool overnight lows are forecast, with 40s expected across the entire CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will be overhead on Friday into Friday evening. Light southeasterly winds persist under mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs are in the middle to upper 70s. Surface high pressure starts shifting east during the second half of Friday night while an upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Increasing clouds are expected through the night thanks to upper level forcing increasing. Showers/storms are not expected until after well daybreak on Saturday. Forecast lows drop into the 50s early Friday night before stabilizing during the second half of the overnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deamplifying short wave will move through the region during the early part of the period. An associated weak cold front will cross the area Saturday night, although there are some timing differences depending on how strong a wave might develop along this front. Showers and some thunderstorms will spread into the area, especially during the afternoon and continue through Saturday night. This activity is forecast to move off to the east by Sunday morning. High pressure will build in behind the front and result in a dry period from Sunday afternoon through most of Monday. A nebulous pattern ensues until a stronger trough develops into the central part of the continent. Weak forcing out ahead of this trough could result in some showers and thunderstorms but the better chances will come towards mid week with the stronger forcing, although there are the usual timing differences with the potential approach of the next cold front late in the period. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal over the weekend with reading then warming up next week with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast through the taf period, with the exception of potential vsby reductions at KLUK due to BR. Drier air tonight should limit this reduction potential, but continued with an MVFR vsby mention for this potential. Cu dissolves this evening, leading to mostly clear skies overnight. Some high level clouds attempt to move in from the west on Friday, but drier air will limit coverage. Surface winds will generally be out of the ENE, but may still vary quite a bit. Winds near or below 5 kts expected through the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM... AVIATION...Clark