236
FXUS61 KILN 030850
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
450 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen slightly as it
amplifies northward today and overnight. Shortwave energy and a
southerly flow may combine and spark afternoon shower activity
and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms
will become increasingly likely through Wednesday ahead of a
cold front that crosses in the late day and early evening,
marking the end of any precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak surface boundary laying out w-e over the Ohio River,
mainly east of metro Cincinnati will potentially bring a light
shower to this area this afternoon. Have put in some patchy
drizzle where cloud cover in this region was a bit more
significant (>55%) in the few hours before and after 18Z.

Morning fog will lift into a low stratus deck and break up
later this morning. Cu development this early afternoon may be a
more broken or solid deck where the surface trough is located
but should be generally scattered for the bulk of the CWA. As
noted, the slightly increased moisture and surface boundary in
the southern CWA may interact with weak impulses that are being
represented with shower activity in a number of models, but
believe that the more likely scenario would be some passing
sprinkles or areas of drizzle here.

Temperatures will be 80-85 today but the increased cloud cover
in and east of metro Cincy could significantly hamper
temperature rises today. Even if it clears out in the afternoon,
there may not be a strong enough push to bring any air warm
enough to push temperatures towards current forecast near 80.
Will need forecasts this morning to interpret how this boundary
and moisture will evolve today and adjust forecast including any
pops, weather/wx type, and temperatures accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest.
Strengthening southerly flow develops ahead of the disturbance
leading to increasing temperatures and moisture across the
region. Overnight lows will only drop to 65 degrees give or take
a degree or two.

Highs are forecast to spike into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday
afternoon in a humid airmass. Mid level impulses of energy
passing northeast through the region on the fairly uniform
southwest flow will interact with these receptive conditions to
see some passing showers, particularly in the west and
southwest. Sunshine in the air ahead of these impulses may add
some instability in the afternoon, allowing some of these
passing showers to contain some thunderstorm activity. Coverage
and placement remains uncertain as both forcing and shear is
weak.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level flow backs with moisture increasing ahead of a
shortwave moving into the Upper MS Valley Tuesday night.
Precipitation chances increase Wednesday as the shortwave pivots
thru the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeps east thru
the Ohio Valley. Model solutions show moderate instability
developing ahead of this front Wednesday when a few of the
storms could become strong to severe.

Mid and upper level low pressure settles into the Great Lakes
Thursday offering a continued threat for showers. Model
solutions show considerable spread in how progressive this
feature is as we head into the weekend. Have followed a
consensus solution keeping low chance pops going with a diurnal
uptick during the afternoon. The highest pops have been placed
over the northeast counties closer to the low pressure.

Temperatures will be a little above normal Wednesday with highs
from the upper 70s to the lower and middle 80s. Readings look
to trend below normal by Friday with highs ranging from the
lower 70s to the mid/upper 70s and then near normal Saturday and
Sunday when readings are expected to top out between 75 and 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Exiting/dissipating stratus around 8kft at CMH/LCK and a bit
less at ILN will see fog development as the skies clear early
this morning. Observations of dense fog over southern CWA is
bringing ground truth to the expanding fog, which will continue
to develop across the region. Dayton may be the lone terminal
that doesn`t get hit hard with the fog but nearby observations
had me forecast a slightly lower impact with less time in the
dense LIFR and a little improvement in the tempo groups.

After the low stratus/fog lifts after daybreak, it will mix out
in favor of some passing cu in the afternoon that dissipates in
the evening with the loss of insolation/direct heating. Did not
forecast a bkn deck but some indications suggest the cu could
thicken to be a ceiling. However, if this is the case it should
be VFR.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks