127
FXUS61 KILN 211835
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
235 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions will continue through Sunday. A cold front will
move through the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing more
seasonable temperatures for the start of the work week. This
will also result in episodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, with a great deal of uncertainty
in the forecast for the latter half of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The earlier SHRA/TSRA has departed the local area to the SE,
leaving abundant sunshine with a narrow corridor of Cu in its
immediate wake near/S of the I-71 corridor. Expect that skies
will become increasingly clear as we progress later into the day
as the remnant moisture mixes out from N to S. In fact, what has
occurred thus far today across central/nrn parts of the ILN FA
is reminiscent of a "dewpoint bomb" wherein dewpoints have
plummeted about 15-20 degrees from AM values with good diurnal
mixing. This has allowed for dewpoint depressions on the order
of 40-45+ degrees and RH values below 20% stretching from EC IN
through central OH, with much higher dewpoints near/S of the OH
Rvr. Luckily, the wind is light, so pronounced fire weather
concerns are not anticipated.

Highs today will top out in the lower 90s for many spots.
Further to the S, where cloud cover is more widespread and
dewpoints are much higher (lower/mid 60s), highs may top out
only in the upper 80s in parts of N/NE KY. Temps will drop
quickly/abruptly this evening/overnight with very dry air,
mainly clear skies, and light/calm winds. Went above temp
guidance for this afternoon, but below guidance for temps
tonight, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The drier air entrenched across the region tonight into Sunday
morning will be shunted to the E into the afternoon, with a
fairly pronounced dewpoint gradient expected to go along with it
as some richer LL moisture advects in from the W during the
afternoon. But it will take some effort to truly moisten the
profile, with an expectation that an approaching band of SHRA,
with embedded TS, will erode with eastward extent. The SHRA may
initially be falling from a deck at about 8-10kft, with quite a
bit of dry air to overcome in the LL. This is shown well even on
the typically more moisture-robust guidance, with a rather
deep layer of dry air in the bottom 8-10kft to overcome,
especially during the onset. So while there will most certainly
be some virga and perhaps some sprinkles, the prospect of
appreciable measurable rainfall drops off rather abruptly near/E
of I-75 Sunday afternoon.

With some more expansive cloud cover moving in during the
afternoon from the W, temps on Sunday will be warmest in the E
(lower 90s), with mid 80s favored near/W of I-75.

An additional S/W will move into the region Sunday evening
through early Sunday night, but will again encounter an
increasingly-unfavorable environment locally (after sunset) with
eastward extent. So more of the same is on tap Sunday
evening/night, wherein approaching SHRA/TSRA from the W should
decrease in coverage with eastward extent, providing little more
than perhaps a brief period of RA (and generally less than a
tenth of any inch) for any one location. While there still
should be /some/ precip Sunday evening/night for many locales,
the SCT nature of the activity lends itself to PoPs being
trimmed rather significantly from previous fcst cycles,
generally topping out at only 50-60%.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A more active pattern will be in place for the long term.  Models
continue to be in general agreement through Wednesday with more
variability beyond that time.  While there is at least some rainfall
potential throughout the long term, the greatest likelihood of
precipitation is Monday and especially Tuesday.  Breezy conditions
are also expected on Tuesday.  Kept the model blend low end pops for
beyond Wednesday with greater uncertainty in place.  With
precipitation chances and increased cloud cover during the extended,
temperatures will be lower than what has been in place.  High
temperatures in many locations will be in the 70s with some 80s also
possible southeast of Interstate 71 on Monday.  Lows will be in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The earlier SHRA/TSRA activity has shifted well to the SE of the
local terminals, with SCT VFR Cu lingering about for KILN and
points S as some remnant LL moisture gradually mixes out. This
VFR Cu should wane in coverage for KILN/KCVG/KLUK by late
afternoon into early evening before skies go mostly clear for
the overnight period.

Aside from a few cirrus from time-to-time, skies should be
mainly clear from 00z until about 15z when some additional
mid/high level moisture moves in from the W. This will be
accompanied by a decaying band of SHRA, which will attempt to
work eastward into the afternoon, but will encounter dry air
with eastward extent. So there is some uncertainty in just how
far E the activity makes it, but have included a VCSH at the
30-hr KCVG for now to indicate potential for some brief SHRA.

There could be some brief MVFR VSBY restrictions at KLUK in the
several hours around daybreak, but confidence in this occurring
is still somewhat low. Calm/light/VRB winds overnight will go
more out of the S at 5-10kts after 15z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC