844
FXUS61 KILN 141045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this afternoon and this
evening. High pressure will build in for Saturday and then move
off to the east starting an extended period of southerly flow.
Highs will rise into the 90s on Sunday with hot temperatures
persisting through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Remnants of convective system continue to weaken as they move
out of the forecast area. There is just a little bit of
trailing shower activity, but for the most part expect there to
be a lull before new convection develops with daytime heating
and the approach of a cold front. These showers and
thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered this afternoon with
somewhat better coverage in central Ohio which will be closer
to upper support in the form of a short wave pushing southeast
across the Great Lakes.

With a moderately sheared environment, cannot rule out a few
stronger storms dependent on how much instability is able to
develop.

With the front being just a bit slower to move into the area,
have bumped up highs slightly into the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Cold front will be exiting the area during the evening. There
still could be some showers or storms ongoing early before
heading off to the south and east. High pressure will build in
bringing a dry airmass through the rest of the period.

Lows will fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs in the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure still remains to our northeast Saturday night.
This will keep a more comfortable air mass in place overnight, with
lows able to drop into the middle 50s to near 60. Conditions really
begin to change on Sunday as this high pressure shifts to our south.
Return flow on the backside of the high will gradually usher in a
more maritime air mass. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to climb
back above the 90 degree mark for the majority of our CWA. This will
be the beginning of a prolonged stretch of abnormally warm and humid
air.

H5 height rises will lead to a large heat dome that builds over much
of the eastern CONUS next week. Across the Ohio Valley, some
solutions (such ECMWF ensemble) suggest H5 height anomalies near or
exceeding 2 sigma. Underneath this ridge, a stagnant, hot and humid
air mass will remain in place through the entirety of the work week.
The primary uncertainty with this regime is the exact placement of
the high pressure system, which could play a role on storm
potential. Even as the region of high pressure expands through the
middle of the week, some global models still try to initiate some
showers/storms, likely diurnally driven from the unstable air mass
that will be in place. This could certainly moderate daytime highs
on any particular day. However, without any convection, we will
observe highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s each day next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is forecast through the period. Fairly high based clouds
will prevail during the day. Expect isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop with heating. The better
chance of any of that affecting the terminals will be in th
Columbus area. So included a VCTS there. Beyond that, clouds
will diminish after 00Z. Winds will be veering as a cold front
moves through the area.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...