161
FXUS61 KILN 231736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
136 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a mostly cloudy and mild day today, a wave of low pressure
will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley late
tonight into Tuesday. The weather pattern will become benign
again late Wednesday through Thursday before tropical moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico brings a chance of precipitation late
this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain chances have ended for now as drier air filters in briefly on
a northerly flow. Chance for showers returns to southern
locations later this afternoon in increasing moisture ahead of
low pressure organizing over the middle Mississippi River
Valley. Highs will range from the middle 70s in the northwest to
the mid-80s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A seasonally potent mid-level shortwave will begin to dig south
into the southern Plains Tuesday with some energy ejecting
northeast toward the Great Lakes states. Ahead of this energy,
surface low pressure will shift toward Lake Michigan late in the
day.

The wind field across the CWA will become southeasterly to
southerly as the low pressure moves north across Illinois. This
will usher in deep moisture... while a warm from brings showers
and a few storms from southwest to northeast through Tuesday
morning. This will represent our best chance of appreciable
rainfall during the first half of the week. In addition, snappy
H5 southwesterly flow will provide enough deep-layer shear for
some marginal severe storm/damaging wind potential once
instability begins to peak during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off from the west
Tuesday night as the surface low moves across the southern Great
Lakes and the associated cold front moves across our area. The front
will then stall out near or just to our southeast Wednesday into
Thursday. Will therefore keep some mainly lower end pops in the
forecast across primarily our southern areas through Thursday.

A fair amount of uncertainty then arises with the forecast as we
head into the weekend and into early next week. Models continue to
show the tropical system and its associated moisture lifting north
on Friday toward the Ohio Valley. The main low then looks to drift
off to our southwest and stall out as it slowly weakens through
early next week. The exact placement and timing of this remains
somewhat uncertain, but a fair amount of moisture will continue to
rotate around the low, with the potential for periods of showers and
a few thunderstorms affecting our area. As of now, the best chance
of pcpn appears to be across our southern/southwestern areas. Given
the uncertainty, will just hang on to mainly lower end chance pops
through much of the second half of the long term period.

Temperatures will be fairly seasonable through the long term with
highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aviation will be affected by low pressure tracking from the
southwest. MVFR ceilings that persist behind the previous system
should dissipate within a couple of hours, allowing a period of
VFR this evening. For tonight through the end of the forecast,
showers will develop and move across TAF sites. MVFR ceilings
are expected to develop at all sites by Tuesday morning as low
levels near saturation. Improvement back to VFR could occur
Tuesday afternoon as mixing increases. Winds shifting to south
should reach around 10 knots Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Coniglio