301
FXUS61 KILN 171738
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnant tropical low pressure will stall over the southern
Appalachians tonight through Wednesday, bringing a few light
showers southeast of Interstate 71. Otherwise, dry weather will
persist under weak high pressure into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Large scale pattern tonight will consist of mid-level ridging
centered over the central Plains with troughing over the
Appalachians. Decaying tropical low at the base of this trough
will be nearly stationary during the period. Clouds and some
light showers will remain generally across our southeast
associated with the decaying low. A dry atmosphere to the north
and west will otherwise provide warm and dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the
low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly
cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in
the lower 80s.

Guidance continues to show a decreasing trend in the clouds and PoPs
Wednesday night. This will cause more efficient radiational
cooling conditions leading to lows dipping into the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in place over the northeastern CONUS through
Saturday night. This synoptic setup will allow for dry conditions
and above average temperatures to persist across the Ohio Valley.
Forecast highs remain in the 80s. Forecast lows through the end of
the week range from near 60 Thursday night to the lower 60s by
Saturday night.

The surface high is expected to shift further east by Sunday into
the start of next week. Winds are forecast to take on a more
southwesterly direction as this occurs. This shift in wind direction
may allow a subtle increase in moisture across the Ohio Valley
although rain chances remain less than 30% each day due to lack of
forcing. Unless a low pressure system forms in the Plains, it may be
difficult to squeeze out any widespread rainfall despite above
average PWATs next week. Above average temperatures likely
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening low pressure system approaching from the southeast
will provide an increase in mid and high level clouds through
the day into the evening with lower clouds around 5000 feet
overnight. A few light rain showers or sprinkles will be
possible southeast of I-71 this afternoon into this evening, but
should generally remain to the southeast of the TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...