Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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312 FXUS61 KILN 201409 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1009 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue today. An upper level disturbance will lead to a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms tonight. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will develop early next week as a frontal boundary approaches the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No major changes with the morning update. Mostly sunny and warm conditions are expected today with highs around 90. A weak front will likely bring a decaying/scattered line of showers and a few storms beginning near the end of the near term period west of I-70 as our mid-level ridge begins to flatten. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Weakening mid level energy will push east into our area tonight accompanied by a weak frontal boundary. As it does, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move southeast into mainly our western areas this evening. However, expect to see an overall weakening trend heading into tonight as the instability will be decreasing. Will therefore allow for some chance pops across our west early this evening and then taper back to just 20 poops heading east into tonight. The boundary will continue to push off to our east through the day on Saturday. Suppose it will be tough to rule out a few showers along the boundary across our southeast early Saturday morning, but the better chance for any pcpn will be mainly off to our southeast during the day. Lows tonight will be mostly in the 60s with highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... H5 ridge in place to start the period will quickly propagate eastward through the end of the weekend. How quickly this ridge shifts eastward will be important to monitor because in its wake, a robust, elongated trough will begin to carve its way through the Midwest. Showers/storms will accompany this trough, which could begin as early as Sunday afternoon based on latest guidance. Instability is weaker on Sunday however, so thunderstorm coverage expected to be more limited. Instability levels will increase Monday into Tuesday, which will promote better thunderstorm potential. Long- range machine learning guidance not overly excited about severe potential, but will have to monitor trends in CAMs as we get closer. Expecting periods of showers/storms Monday into Tuesday with the development of a surface low and a slow moving cold front to our west. QPF footprint continues to increase from ensemble guidance, with anomalous PWAT values increasing to the 1.75" range. Thus, some efficient rainfall may be observed as we finally receive a robust forcing mechanism and sufficient instability for thunderstorm development. This may help provide some short-term relief from the drought conditions. Cold front moves through the region late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Near or just below seasonal normal temperatures will return by mid-week as relatively cooler air funnels in. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few areas of VFR stratocumulus have developed early this morning. This should translate into a few diurnal cu through late morning and into this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will move into the area from the west this evening and into the overnight hours. This will lead to the potential for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm this evening and perhaps lingering into tonight. Chances are low enough to leave a mention out of the TAFS, although the best chances would be at the western TAF sites in the 00Z-02Z timeframe. Otherwise, we will see an increase in mainly VFR clouds tonight with some local MVFR cigs possible late tonight into early Saturday morning, especially for areas to the west of I-75. OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...JGL