137
FXUS63 KILX 161039
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
539 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like warmth will continue through the weekend with highs
  ranging from the middle 80s to near 90.

- Precipitation chances don`t return until this weekend/early next
  week with a series of frontal systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An expansive area of surface ridging centered over the northeast US
extends westward through Illinois. In the upper levels, a strong
~588 dm 500 mb high is anchored over the northeast CONUS with a pair
of upper lows tied to tropical systems over the southeast US,
creating a Rex blocking pattern. This will keep warm and dry weather
ongoing here through at least the end of the week. Dewpoints will
come down significantly today as drier air currently situated over
eastern Indiana and Ohio advects westward. This will bring cooler
overnight lows the next several days with temperatures bottoming out
in the 50s or upper 40s.

Potential tropical cyclone eight will move onshore the coast of the
Carolinas tonight, though will come to a halt by midweek as it
encounters strong ridging to the north. Moisture associated with
this tropical system will extend as far west as Ohio/Kentucky, but
will stay far enough away from us to keep things dry. Precipitation
chances begin to return this weekend tied to a pair of frontal
systems. The NBM shows low chances of precipitation as early as
Friday and continuing through early next week. However, this is
likely temporally overdone and will continue to be refined in the
coming days as the upper features are sampled better.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place through the TAF
period. Expect FEW to SCT cirrus paired with light easterly winds.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$