Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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961 FXUS63 KILX 150127 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 827 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and humid weather is on tap for next week. Heat index values will peak at or above 100 degrees from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon before readings settle back into the middle to upper 90s for the remainder of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 818 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A few mid-level clouds, tied to shortwave energy lifting atop the ridge axis, shouldn`t be enough to interrupt an otherwise stellar diurnal cooling setup. Our 00z sounding is impressively dry, and there`s no reason to think overnight temperatures won`t crash into the upper 50s in many areas. In a similar manner, the diurnal bounce Saturday afternoon could be equally impressive as temperatures surge back into the upper 80s beneath a thin layer of high clouds. MJA && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Weak cold front has settled southward into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, allowing a slightly cooler and less humid airmass to filter into central Illinois. 19z/2pm dewpoints have dropped into the 50s everywhere along/north of I-70...making things feel quite a bit more comfortable than yesterday. As high pressure builds into the region tonight, radiational cooling of the drier air will allow low temperatures to fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. The high will shift off to the east on Saturday: however, boundary layer flow will maintain an easterly component and dewpoints will stay in the 50s. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s. Barnes .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A short-wave trough will track from Colorado/New Mexico northeastward into the western Great Lakes on Sunday. This feature will remain just W/NW of central Illinois, with scattered showers/storms perhaps getting as close as the Mississippi River Saturday night into Sunday. Have maintained a dry forecast at this time, but may need to add slight chance PoPs across the Illinois River Valley if the trailing trough axis gets closer than currently expected. As the wave lifts into the Great Lakes, a warm front will get pulled northward through central Illinois, causing winds to veer to the SW by Sunday afternoon. This will push air temperatures into the lower to middle 90s and dewpoints well into the 60s. Resulting heat index values will reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Even higher heat index readings of 100-105 are expected on Monday as upper heights rise and air temperatures reach the middle 90s. As deep-layer southwesterly flow develops, a swath of moisture will flow northward from the western Gulf of Mexico. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest widely scattered diurnal convection both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. As diurnal cloud cover increases, air temperatures will likely be a couple degrees cooler by Tuesday, resulting in heat index values generally below 100. After that, a hot and humid week is ahead with temperatures in the 90s through next Friday. Barnes && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours, with a general increase in high clouds by Saturday afternoon. Northwest winds will quickly shift northeast early this evening but become light, then a more sustained south/southeast flow sets up Saturday morning. Geelhart && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$