189
FXUS63 KILX 151710
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like warmth continues through the week with highs peaking
  in the middle 80s to near 90.

- Spotty showers (20% chance) are possible this afternoon west of
  I- 55, but most will stay dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Forecast looks on track today and no updates needed as today`s
weather will pretty much mimic yesterday`s weather with us in a
RexBlock pattern. Very warm highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon into
early evening from Galesburg to Jacksonville west. Gentle east to
SE winds at 6 to 12 mph.

07

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Upper analysis shows a Rex block over the eastern US with a strong
590 dm high centered over the eastern Great Lakes Region and a broad
low over the southeast US. Further west a deep longwave trough is
working onshore the Pacific coast, bringing a more active pattern
over the Plains states this week. Little movement in the pattern
over the east-central CONUS will be seen until a tropical
disturbance currently located off the coast Georgia moves onshore
early in the week. Strong surface ridging that extends as far west
as the eastern Plains states as of today will halt the remnants
of the tropical system, with it expected to become nearly
stationary over Virgina/North Carolina by midweek.

The weather here locally will be rather tranquil, aside from the
summer-like heat we will experience through the week. Temperatures
on Saturday overperformed by a few degrees so opted to raise highs
for today to mimic yesterday`s values. Expect temperatures to
peak in the middle 80s to near 90 this afternoon and the next
several afternoons. A couple of weak upper shortwaves will
traverse along the western periphery of the ridge, bringing waves
of mid to high clouds. Similar to yesterday, spotty showers or
storms (20% chance) may develop west of I-55 this afternoon where
dewpoints will be highest. The 15.00Z HREF shows light QPF amounts
ranging from a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch with any
isolated activity. The HREF`s max QPF shows values up to 1 inch
in spots, which wouldn`t be too shocking with the weak flow/slow
storm motions.

Other than isolated activity this afternoon, we look to be rather
dry through the week. The previously mentioned longwave trough will
move further inland and send several impulses north through the
Plains states this week. Our next chance for rain doesn`t come until
next weekend when a cold front approaches. However, that doesn`t
look too promising at this point.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Great Lakes
through the period with ridging extending back across the Midwest.
East to southeast winds will prevail across central illinois
through the period, with winds during the day peaking around 10kt
and dropping to around 5kt or less overnight. VFR conditions are
expected through the period.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$