972
FXUS63 KILX 260116
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
816 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will continue tonight and tomorrow with seasonable
  overnight lows in the 50s. Expect high temperatures in the
  middle to upper 70s by the afternoon.

- Unsettled weather is still expected late this week into early
  next week. A chance of showers begins Thursday night in
  southeast IL, and most of central IL Friday and Friday night,
  and continues through the weekend. More widespread showers and
  the heaviest rainfall is expected Friday and Friday night south
  of I-70 where 1 to 1.5 inches is expected. Breezy northeast
  winds will prevail Friday through Saturday with gusts up to 40
  mph possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

An upper level low remains over southern IL with a few showers and
thunderstorms remaining this evening south of I-70, expected to
diminish as diurnal heating dissipates and the upper low continues
to shift south allowing high pressure to the north to edge closer.
Pressure gradients look to be strengthening overnight, but not
enough to prevent light and variable winds over the area until
morning. Lows look to be generally mid 50s. Only updates needed
this evening have been to add evening showers/thunderstorms south
of I-70.

37

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Dry weather will continue tonight through tomorrow as the upper
level system continues to slide further south of the area. Winds
will remain light and skies will be mostly clear through the
night. This will lead to possible light fog overnight across the
northern part of the CWA, but do not expect dense fog. Hurricane
Helene will begin to bring precip to southeast parts of the CWA
beginning Thur afternoon into Thur night, but highest chances of
precip will only be about 30-40% starting after midnight. Prior to
midnight, pops will be only 10-20%.

Normal temperatures are expected tonight through tomorrow, with
overnight low tomorrow night becoming slightly warmer as clouds
and precip begin to move in.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Unsettled weather will continue for Friday and Sat and remnants of
Helene will move into the area for Fri through Sat night. Most of
the precip associated with this will occur Friday through Sat over
the CWA. The highest QPF amounts will be Fri and Fri night with
amounts of 1-1.60 inches possible south of I-70. Models are
different with the rainfall amounts, but have come into better
agreement on onset of the precip. Other models have higher amounts
of rainfall but consensus is that the higher amounts are
overdone. Unfortunately, isolated to scattered showers will likely
continue through the weekend after remnants of Helene move off
the east. Any rainfall amounts associated with the lighter precip
will be minor and not add much to the overall totals. Sunday into
Monday the upper level system, combined with the remnants of
Helene will slowly move toward the east. As high pressure builds
in with dry and cooler weather another mid level trough will drop
into the Great Lakes region, missing the CWA and keeping the area
dry for Monday night through Wed.

Another concern from remnants of Helene is strong sfc winds Friday
through Sat. Winds are expected to increase Fri into Fri night
with possible gusts pushing 40 mph during the period. Though this
is reaching advisory criteria, no advisory product will be issued
at this point.

Afternoon highs will be around normal through the end of the week,
but then warm through the weekend, with some areas reaching into
the lower 80s by Sunday and Monday. Cooler temps return for Tue
and Wed with highs only reaching to around 70. Overnight lows will
be in the 60s Friday night but then become slightly cooler for the
weekend and into the next week.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

High pressure and associated clear skies will become increasingly
predominant as an upper level low over souther IL continues to
drift southward tonight into Thursday. Winds light and variable
overnight, becoming NE 7-10 kts after 15Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$