102
FXUS63 KILX 252044
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
344 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will continue tonight through tomorrow with
  seasonable overnight lows in the 50s. Sunny and dry tomorrow
  will also bring seasonable temperatures in the middle to upper
  70s by the afternoon.

- Unsettled weather is still expected late this week into early
  next week. A chance of showers occurs on Thursday afternoon and
  evening in southeast IL, and into central IL too on Friday and
  Fri night, and continues through the weekend. More widespread
  showers and the heaviest rainfall is expected Friday and Friday
  night south of I-70 where 1 to 1.5 inches is expected. Breezy
  northeast winds will prevail Friday through Saturday over the
  area with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Dry weather will continue tonight through tomorrow as the upper
level system continues to slide further south of the area. Winds
will remain light and skies will be mostly clear through the
night. This will lead to possible light fog overnight across the
northern part of the CWA, but do not expect dense fog. Hurricane
Helene will begin to bring precip to southeast parts of the CWA
beginning Thur afternoon into Thur night, but highest chances of
precip will only be about 30-40% starting after midnight. Prior to
midnight, pops will be only 10-20%.

Normal temperatures are expected tonight through tomorrow, with
overnight low tomorrow night becoming slightly warmer as clouds
and precip begin to move in.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Unsettled weather will continue for Friday and Sat and remnants of
Helene will move into the area for Fri through Sat night. Most of
the precip associated with this will occur Friday through Sat over
the CWA. The highest QPF amounts will be Fri and Fri night with
amounts of 1-1.60 inches possible south of I-70. Models are
different with the rainfall amounts, but have come into better
agreement on onset of the precip. Other models have higher amounts
of rainfall but consensus is that the higher amounts are
overdone. Unfortunately, isolated to scattered showers will likely
continue through the weekend after remnants of Helene move off
the east. Any rainfall amounts associated with the lighter precip
will be minor and not add much to the overall totals. Sunday into
Monday the upper level system, combined with the remnants of
Helene will slowly move toward the east. As high pressure builds
in with dry and cooler weather another mid level trough will drop
into the Great Lakes region, missing the CWA and keeping the area
dry for Monday night through Wed.

Another concern from remnants of Helene is strong sfc winds Friday
through Sat. Winds are expected to increase Fri into Fri night
with possible gusts pushing 40 mph during the period. Though this
is reaching advisory criteria, no advisory product will be issued
at this point.

Afternoon highs will be around normal through the end of the week,
but then warm through the weekend, with some areas reaching into
the lower 80s by Sunday and Monday. Cooler temps return for Tue
and Wed with highs only reaching to around 70. Overnight lows will
be in the 60s Friday night but then become slightly cooler for the
weekend and into the next week.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
CU at 5kft will prevail this afternoon but dissipate this evening
after sunset. Then clear skies are expected through the night into
tomorrow. Winds will be light northerly this afternoon and then
become light and variable this evening, lasting through the night.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$