695
FXUS63 KIND 231048
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
648 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and some thunderstorms this morning. Gusty winds possible.
- Tuesday likely to be warmest day of the week.
- More thunderstorms possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with one or
  more rounds of strong to severe storms possible, though uncertain.
- A brief respite from heat and humidity late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Early This Morning...

A line of showers and thunderstorms extended from Lower Michigan
southwest into Missouri and was moving east/southeast. Scattered
cells were developing ahead of it. The convection was ahead of a
cold front and an upper wave.

Mesoanalysis shows that the convection was running ahead of the
better instability, and instability continues to weaken diurnally.
Satellite showed warming tops with the convection as well. Thus,
feel that odds of severe convection will continue to lower. With
some decent wind fields aloft still, there remains a threat of gusty
winds over 40 mph though.

With some upper support with the trough and the right entrance
region of an upper jet, feel that convection will survive
the usual diurnal weakening period and continue to push
south and east through the hours before 12Z. Will have likely or
higher PoPs northwest and PoPs up to likely southeast as the line
weakens diurnally.

Today...

The weakened line should be only across the far southeastern
portions of the area by 12Z. Will have high chance or low likely
PoPs there, with lower PoPs to the northwest. Will not go dry behind
the line initially, because the surface front will linger behind the
line and could spark some additional showers.

Will keep some PoPs behind the line early in the today period,
gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast into early
afternoon.

The remainder of the day should remain dry. Some CAMs are showing a
few showers developing in the afternoon, but just don`t see the
forcing for them. Will keep the forecast dry.

Temperatures will be cooler than recent days thanks to the morning
cloud cover and the passage of the cold front. Highs will peak in
the middle 80s to around 90.

Tonight...

Drier air will move in on northwest flow, and high pressure will
build in from the west. Skies will be mostly clear, and winds will
diminish as the high moves in. The result will be a cooler night
across central Indiana, with lows from near 60 northeast to the
middle 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Higher than normal warmth continues through the long term with a
couple of widespread 90s days possible between brief (relative)
relief in between. Tuesday will see the best chance of hitting low
to mid 90s across the region but could be possible again Saturday.
Late in the week will also see more comfortable dew points in the
40s and 50s behind the mid week system, but moisture and humidity
will return for the weekend with additional rain chances.

The retrograding ridge is expected to stay over the SW states for
much of the week, allowing a few systems to impact the local region.
The next system will arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface
low progresses across central Canada and its associated front will
move through the Great Lakes region. A couple rounds of storms with
this system may impact central Indiana: the first is more uncertain
but an MCS could arrive early Tuesday morning, reaching our NW to N
counties. The next, and more likely round, will move across central
Indiana along the frontal boundary, arriving late Tuesday and could
last through the day Wednesday. If severe storms are to occur in
central Indiana, it will be most likely be cold pool driven given
far weaker deep layer shear this far south, with damaging winds the
primary threat.

The latter portion of the work week will see quiet weather, slightly
lower temps, and significantly lower dewpoints as high pressure
returns over the SE states. This may be short-lived unfortunately
as guidance indicates potential for additional convective potential
along the periphery of the ridge as we get into next weekend. Model
differences are significant with respect to ridge amplitude and
location, and thus relatively low chances are forecast for the
moment.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Impacts:

- Wind gusts over 20kt common today
- Wind shift to northwest by early afternoon
- A period of MVFR ceilings likely this morning


Discussion:

The line of showers and thunderstorms will be east of the TAF sites
by valid time, but some showers may develop behind it. Used VCSH as
necessary this morning.

Some MVFR ceilings will be around this morning, especially at the
northern sites. Ceilings will then become VFR and scatter out during
the afternoon.

Wind gusts will persist during the day today, and winds will veer to
W and then NW as a cold front passes.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...50