872
FXUS63 KIND 291607
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1207 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for showers today, primarily over the eastern half
  of central IN

- Below normal temperatures today and tonight; Highs in the upper 60s
  to low 70s with overnight temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s

- Dry and Seasonable Wednesday through Friday, Rain chances Saturday
  into Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...

Northwest flow near the surface and aloft continues as the upper
level low that brought the storms to portions of central Indiana
yesterday continues to slowly track to the east.  Weak lift within
the jet stream associated with this low continues to bring periods
of sprinkles and light rain, mainly to the eastern counties with
widespread cloud coverage.

Little change was made to the forecast other than to expand the
sprinkle coverage a bit further west based on latest radar trends.
As long as the cloud cover doesn`t break earlier than currently
expected, most areas will struggle to reach 70 today which lines up
well with the ongoing forecast.

Expect that by later this evening any rain will be focused only
across the northeastern counties where the moisture is a bit more
robust.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across all of
central IN with widespread clouds over portions of eastern WI,
southern MI, and northern IN. There clouds are associated with a mid-
level shortwave which is expected to progress towards the area
leading to enhanced cloud cover. Look for clouds to increase in
coverage between towards daybreak and persist through at least the
early afternoon hours. Weak forcing from the disturbance and
marginal low-level moisture will support the potential for showers,
mainly across the eastern half of central IN from mid-morning to
early afternoon.

The shortwave is expected to move east by this afternoon with
surface high pressure building in which should allow for clouds
to gradually begin clearing. With clouds clearing out some, this
could be enough to promote a few diurnal showers through the
afternoon from daytime heating. Most locations are going to remain
dry during the afternoon, but will keep very low rain chances
over far east counties. Look for quiet weather conditions tonight
as surface high pressure continues to build in. Light winds and
clear skies may allow for patchy fog development.

Enhanced cloud cover early in the day combined with broad upper
troughing and N/NW flow will keep temperatures below normal in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Light winds and clear skies may allow for
patchy fog development late overnight. Good radiational cooling
conditions will result in chilly lows around the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Ridging will start building in late Thursday and will bring
temperatures up closer to climo (mid-upper 70s) by Friday and
Saturday. Narrow moisture return ahead of the next shortwave trough
will bring a chance of showers Saturday. The degree of forcing,
moisture magnitude, and instability indicate generally light
amounts. Multi-model ensemble mean rainfall amounts are around or
just above a quarter inch, with only a couple of outliers near an
inch.

The background larger scale synoptic pattern will feature steadily
rising heights and slight positive anomalies by the weekend and
early next week, so temperatures will rise to slightly above climo
during this period. Uncertainties emerge as ensemble spread grows
with handling smaller scale features. One shortwave trough is
reasonably well timed among the ensemble suite bringing increased
rain chances early next week. It`s difficult at this time range to
narrow down specific periods of greater chances. Most of the flow
aloft will remain at higher latitudes, so shear is limited and
organized severe storm threat appears low at this time.

Days 8-14: Multi-model medium range ensemble mean shows a relatively
strong signal for the time range of eastern troughing and western
ridging. This should keep us below normal on both temperatures and
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Impacts:

-MVFR cigs at IND through 19Z
-Occasional gusts to 20kts through 01z.

Discussion:

Sprinkles and light rain have ended across central Indiana with MVFR
cigs only ongoing at IND.  These should scatter out by 19Z with
gradually clearing skies through 01Z.  Northwesterly winds will
occasionally gust to 20kts through the rest of the afternoon hours
with winds closer to 7-10kts after 01Z.  VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies then afterwards through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...White