Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230707
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

Minimal weather impacts are expected in the short term. Periodic
high clouds are tied to a plume of moisture ascending to a
downstream jet entrance region on the periphery of Southeast mean
ridging. This may shift eastward just enough for a brief period of
mostly clear conditions later today before moisture/clouds arrive
from the upstream system. Isentropic ascent and top-down moistening
won`t be sufficient for rain before the end of the day Tuesday,
however.

The approaching mid-latitude system has trended slower in
deterministic and ensemble model guidance, and our blend starting
point (NBM) has a known inertial lag bias. Thus, it falls on the
upper end of the model distribution for temperatures on Tuesday.
Latest models slightly hold back the transition from weak easterly
flow to veering/strengthening warm advection pattern compared to
previous cycles. So, while we will still see a rise in temperatures
to near climo, we have lowered forecast temperatures Tuesday from
the previous forecast by around a degree, using a raw model blend.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

The middle to late workweek will find Indiana returning to several
more periods of damp and considerably cloudy weather as a cut-off
upper low slowly spins from the western High Plains...across the
Ozarks...and then through our local CWA by the Friday timeframe. The
resultant stacked, generally southerly flow will send enough Gulf
moisture into the region for likely chances of rain through at least
Thursday morning.  Although, some uncertainty exists with rain
coverage and intensity as potential upstream severe weather
along/near the Lower Mississippi Valley may absorb much of this flux.

Wednesday so far appears to have the most favorable set-up for any
convection, with ample instability as adequate low level shear
crosses the northern Mid-West ahead of the approaching cut-off.  2-
to 3-day rainfall totals should be less impressive than some of the
locally extreme values seen across central Indiana during the third
week of May, although the potential for another 1.00-2.00 seems
reasonable given precipitable water values in the 1.30-1.80 inch
range for most locations during a 48-hour period.

Friday night - Sunday is expected to be rain-free as the cut-off
trough departs eastward and ridging builds into Indiana.  However,
at least moderate confidence that the upper pattern quickly turns
zonal...with increasing southerly flow ahead of the next central
Plains surface low promoting a warming trend amid moderate humidity
to start next week.

Temperatures through the long term will hold near normal through the
damp and unsettled workweek...before trending above normal early
next week.  The normal max/min for the Indianapolis Area through the
long term is 77/57.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

IMPACTS:

- VFR conditions through the TAF period.

- Winds 030-050 degrees less than 10 knots overnight will shift to
  050-080 degrees around 10 knots after 15z and then fall to
  under 10 knots after 00z Tuesday.

DISCUSSION:

Dry column and high pressure will provide VFR flying conditions.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short Term...BRB
Long Term...AM
Aviation...MK


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