Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 182337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
637 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 308 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

An area of low pressure to our south will bring precipitation
chances to the area tonight into Monday. A cold front will bring
more low chances of snow Monday night. A frontal system will bring
rain chances to the area Friday into next weekend. Cold temperatures
will continue into mid-week, then temperatures will warm to near or
even above normal by next weekend.


.NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

A few sprinkles were across the far northeastern forecast area this
afternoon, as an area of low pressure moves into southern Ohio.
Clouds covered much of the area.

Another area of low pressure will move into central Kentucky by late
tonight, while more upper energy approaches the area. There will be
some isentropic lift and broad dynamic forcing with these. The
forcing will be focused just south of the area, closer to the
surface low.

There is adequate moisture for some light precipitation tonight.
However, the models have been doing poorly with coverage and amounts
of precipitation the last day or so (too high). Thus feel that their
coverage and amounts of tonight`s precipitation is overdone, and
will cut back some.

Given this, will go with likely PoPs only across the far south
tonight, with PoPs diminishing to the north. Most of the northern
half of the area will remain dry.

Some models are also bringing in too cold of air at the surface,
with no strong cold advection. Will ignore those models and keep
lows from near 30 through the mid 30s.

These temperatures will lead to mainly rain over the south third of
the area , with perhaps a mix of rain and snow over the remainder of
the southern half. With most of the measurable precipitation across
areas seeing mainly rain, am not expecting any snow accumulation
where there`s a mix.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

As the low pressure across Kentucky moves east Monday, chances for
some light precipitation will continue across the southeastern half
of the area. With best forcing east of the area, and given model
trends of overdoing rain chances, kept most areas below the likely
PoP category. Chances will diminish from northwest to southeast
during the day. Any mixed precipitation early in the day will
quickly change to rain.

A reinforcing shot of colder air will move in Monday night with a
front and an upper trough. Moisture is quite limited, so only went
for a slight chance of light snow in the northeast.

High pressure will provide cold and dry conditions Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Models differ on how far southwest a back door cold
front will get into the area Wednesday, but either way it shouldn`t
have enough moisture to work with, so continued with a dry forecast.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

A quiet start to the extended holiday weekend will gradual
transition to a wet and unsettled pattern for next weekend as two
separate storms systems swing into the Ohio Valley.

The large upper trough across the northeast part of the country will
be lifting out at the beginning of the long term...setting with brad
ridging aloft building in for Thanksgiving Day. The combination of
the upper level ridge and strong high pressure at the surface will
produce a dry and quiet holiday with highs warming into the mid and
upper 40s under mainly sunny skies.

The ridge and high pressure will shift east on Friday as the first
of the two storm systems moves into the region. A positively tilted
upper trough will rotate through the region late Friday into
Saturday. At the surface...low pressure will track across the Upper
Midwest pulling a weak front across central Indiana Friday night.
This system will bring rain to the area Friday afternoon into
Saturday with the most likely impacts Friday night.

While it will remain cloudy and mild with highs into the
50s...expect a brief respite from rain late Saturday into Sunday
before more widespread coverage returns late Sunday into early the
following week as a stronger low pressure kicks out of the southern
Plains. Still plenty of model disagreement with strength...timing
and track of this second system which is to be expected at 7-8 days
out. That being said...this is likely to be the system that will end
the subtle warmup over the next week or so and shift the Ohio Valley
back into a colder and more unsettled pattern to end the month.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/00Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 629 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Poor flying conditions will continue into this TAF period with an
area of low pressure to the south. This means predominantly
MVFR/IFR conditions through tomorrow afternoon. And, will not rule
out LIFR conditions at KBMG early tomorrow morning since rain
showers will affect that TAF site. KIND/KLAF/KHUF can expect a
return to VFR conditions late in the period, but MVFR is the best
that KBMG will improve to. Meanwhile, winds will generally be
northwesterly at 5 to 10 kts.





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