Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 170701
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
301 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.UPDATE...

The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High pressure will bring in cooler and drier air for the middle of
the week, then an upper level low and surface frontal system will
bring rain chances for the of end the work week and through the
weekend. Temperatures will generally be near normal to below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

A cold front has moved south of the area early this morning, taking
the scattered showers with it. High pressure was beginning to build
into the area, but the drier air remains north of central Indiana.

Quiet weather can be expected today with the high building in. The
drier air will take a while to filter in from the north, so the
first half of the day will be relatively humid for most areas.

Satellite shows some patchy clouds around, and model relative
humidity forecasts indicate this trend will continue. However the
day overall will be mostly sunny.

With sunshine, and temperatures still starting off relatively warm
this morning, went a little above the model blend for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

High pressure will keep the area dry through most of the short term.
Skies will be mostly clear through Wednesday night.

On Thursday clouds will increase ahead of an upper level low and
surface front. Forcing from these will arrive Thursday night, but
better forcing will not arrive until after the short term. Thus the
initialization`s chance PoPs overnight Thursday night look
reasonable.

Temperatures will be cooler than recent conditions, with readings
generally near or a little below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

The long term period looks to be characterized by near or slightly
below normal temperatures and ample opportunity for showers and
storms as a large upper level low spins over the Great Lakes
through the weekend.

Aside from capping pops in some periods owing to model
discrepancies and uncertainties, blended initialization handled
things relatively well and required only these minor changes.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 170600Z Tafs/...
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

VFR Conditions are expected this taf period.

Convection across Central Indiana has ended as a weak surface
trough drifts southeast of the Taf sites exiting the area. High
pressure over the upper midwest will continue to build across the
Great Lakes and Indiana. Dew point depressions remain rather
low...and fog development may be possible overnight resulting in
MVFR conditions. However confidence is not great enough at this
point for a mention other than here as models strongly suggest
falling dew points overnight.

Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column with
subsidence on Tuesday. Convective temperatures are suggested to
be in the mid 80s...but with strong subsidence in play across the
region as High pressure builds across the area...any TSRA chances
for Tuesday afternoon are too small to be worth a mention at this
point.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...JP


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