Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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273 FXUS63 KIWX 260915 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 515 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing this morning will become more numerous and focus across Central and NE IN/NW OH/SE Lower MI) by mid to late afternoon, then progress southward out of the region by this evening. Highs will be around 80 degrees, and lows in the upper 50s. - Dry conditions prevail from tonight into late Friday afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. - The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday afternoon and evening into Saturday night. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 514 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Another day another uncertain pop forecast with limited forcing to kick precipitation off beyond the crossing cold front late this morning/afternoon. We had a couple of isolated showers overnight, however largely it`s been much drier than expected. Naturally given the poor model performance (minus the HRRR who had mostly dry tonight) I`m hesitant to have the likely/categorical pops this afternoon-but with ambient moisture around, a cold front moving through, and expected instability around 500-1500 J/kg (ML Cape- particularly along/south of US 24)-felt the higher pops were warranted after 15z. Models have a whole pot-pourri of solutions to choose from, but kept close to the HRRR based on its performance overnight to now. Did blend in with the RAP/NAM to bump things up a bit around 15z-18z as later runs of the HRRR came in indicating at least isolated development by 15z and increasing from there as the front shifts southeast and becomes better focused. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a couple stronger storms produce microbursts if we can get better afternoon instability (some of the models have up to 500-1200 J/kg)--but at this point we are not in an SPC outlook and my confidence is extremely low given model disagreements. Light and somewhat variable winds will become somewhat breezy and shift W-NW behind the front this afternoon. Highs today will be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Dry conditions and clearing skies return tonight, with lows falling into the upper 50s and low 60s. Mid level ridging and surface high pressure will build in behind the exiting cold front tonight, effectively putting an end to any precipitation chances through early Friday afternoon. Light winds out of the N-NW tonight will shift to the E-SE by Friday and increase to around 10 to 20 mph ahead of the next system. Highs will be in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. By Friday afternoon a cut off low in the mid levels will begin its eastward drift from Saskatchewan, digging slightly across the northern plains and Canadian Prairies through Saturday night when it reaches James Bay/Ontario. The associated surface low will drift into the Dakotas Friday morning, with the warm front extending southeast from there through MO/IA/AR and into LA/AL. This warm front will lift northward through the day as the surface low occludes, with the triple point reaching the area around Ludington, MI by Saturday morning. So on Friday afternoon into the overnight we`ll see an uptick in moisture from the gulf thanks to return flow around high pressure centered over the Atlantic. The warm front will lift northeastward through the CWA by Saturday morning, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. The cold front at that point is on our western doorstep, extending from Ludington, MI southwest through Lake MI and into IL/MO/OK/KS. This will cross our forecast area through Sunday morning/early afternoon (depending on model), providing additional chances. With the front approaching around the 12z time frame Saturday and continuing eastward through the afternoon and late evening hours, we have MUCAPE values around 1-3K J/kg and decent surface instability, limited bulk 0-6 km shear of 30- 40 knots, and mid level lapse rates of 6-7C/km, we could see a few stronger storms-but confidence is low at this point. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s. Being in the warm sector Saturday will bring the warmest temperatures, with highs in mid to upper 80s. It will be coolest Sunday behind the cold front with highs in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Clouds are streaming in off a decaying complex of thunderstorms moving through central IL. Showers are noted upstream over Wisconsin, drifting southeast, in the vicinity of a cold front there. This cold front will move through the TAF sites later today. Forecast soundings depict an ample environment for thunderstorms, but not nearly as robust as the storms less than 24 hours ago. Confidence is medium for the timing and there is some guidance that misses KSBN all together; low confidence on that solution. Ceiling trends will need to be monitored at KSBN early this morning with FEW036 in the 0354z observation. However, upstream observations are generally VFR and the in-house blend suggests only a 30% chance of MVFR ceilings early this morning. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...Brown