971
FXUS63 KIWX 160425
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and primarily dry conditions will persist this week.

- Very low humidity values are expected this afternoon and Monday
afternoon. Care should be taken with any fires.

- There is a low chance of rain Wednesday, mainly east of Interstate
69.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Some indications of the mid level ridge over the Northeast slightly
edging westward today through Monday before energy off the southwest
Atlantic moves inland south of the ridge. The ridge offers the
energy a chance to deep with its upper divergence in the right place
and the NHC gives that energy an increased from yesterday 50 percent
chance to develop into something tropical. Thereafter, models carry
that energy northwestward toward the area by mid to late week this
week. As expected, there are some timing differences, but models do
have an increase in low level theta-e. However, there is little if
any instability to work with, and am still skeptical if anything
falls out of it. Rather than flip flop, will continue similar 15 to
20 percent PoPs to the previous shift for the Wednesday and Thursday
time frame. During this time, the 700 mb temp is only 6C, so there`s
little cap to keep things from going. By Friday or Saturday, trends
will be away from the cooler mid level temperatures and increased
vorticity from the western Atlantic tropical remnants as they depart
southeastward again. So we`ll be back into the dry weather again.

Temperature-wise the mid teens 850 mb temperatures trend a little
cooler for Tuesday allowing the mid to upper 80s high temperatures
through Monday to trend back to the low 80s. It does trend warmer
for Wednesday and beyond, but the increased low level moisture acts
to restrict mixing and allow for cooler high temps, in the low to
mid 80s then. Still have the mid 20s to mid 30s MinRH values through
Tuesday, but still the relatively wet fuels and weak winds keep the
area free from fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

An upper level ridge was still over the region and was centered
near Detroit early tonight. Large scale subsidence associated
with this high will continue to prevent nearly all clouds from
forming during this TAF period. Otherwise, low level east flow
will persist with east to east/southeast winds around or under
10 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Skipper