913
FXUS63 KIWX 141606
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1206 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Warm and dry conditions will persist through next week.

-Drought conditions will likely continue to expand and worsen.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Outer vorticity bands associated with the remnant tropical
circulation of Francine are producing a few sprinkles just to our
S/SW but our CWA will remain dry through the weekend. Very strong
mid/upper level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Lakes
given blocking pattern over Canada and the north Atlantic. Strong
subsidence remains over the region with a very dry/stable airmass
noted in observed and model soundings. Strong upper high will
effectively suppress the tropical circulation to our south. Only
meager increases in low level theta-e noted locally with better
moisture remaining southwest and west of the area given predominate
SE flow. Thermal profiles remain unchanged through early next week.
Highs remain in the mid/upper 80s with only subtle variances due to
variable cloud cover/mixing.

Another tropical system is likely to develop off the Carolina coast
next week (40% chance per latest NHC forecast). Considerable
uncertainty remains in the eventual track of this system as it heads
for the Upper Ohio Valley. Several deterministic models still show
potential for remnant/outer rain bands to reach our far eastern
zones on Wed. However ensembles show a high degree of spread and
subsequently NBM maintains a dry forecast. This is likely the safer
bet given exceptional drought over parts of Ohio and very dry
resident airmass. Areas west of I-69 are very likely to remain dry.
If rain does reach our far east it will be light with minimal impact
on worsening drought conditions anyway. Otherwise persistence
forecast rules through the end of next week as behemoth ridge
goes nowhere.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A strong upper ridge will continue to promote VFR/dry conditions
and little in the way of cloud cover through the period. Winds
will generally remain out of the southeast near 8 knots
otherwise.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel