Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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454 FXUS63 KIWX 190431 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1231 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and stagnant pattern to persist into at least the start of the weekend. - Confidence in needed rainfall chances next week remains low, with greatest potential possibly arriving Tue/Wed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Advection of moisture from the east overnight resulted in rather extensive area of fog early this morning as far west as the IN 15/US 131 corridor. Some concerns a similar setup could occur tonight, but confidence in widespread/dense nature is low. Have added patchy mention in eastern areas late tonight into early Thursday for now. Sheared out wave attempts to push a front into NW areas Friday, but decreasing forcing and shallow nature of limited moisture likely limits these areas to at most a few sprinkles. Blend expanded pops east and have cut them back significantly. Upper level ridge grabs hold Fri night with models continuing to struggle on how fast it breaks down in response to a stronger wave edging east across the Plains over the weekend. Quality of moisture return and progress of the trough will be key to determining if we have better chances for rainfall towards mid week. In coordination with western offices, lowered dewpoints Saturday as decent mixing should continue given the dry mid levels and strong heating. Model blend also continues to be riddled with likely overdone pops Sun-Mon with slightly higher (but still low overall) confidence on at least some rainfall to end the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The set up tonight is similar to last night with the potential for dense fog formation late tonight as lower 60 dew points were over northeast Indiana with slightly higher moisture amounts upstream in the synoptic east flow from the Atlantic with some enhancement (extra moisture) from Lake Erie. The hourly HRRR lagged some with the fog development last night, but appears to be on track in at least the right area with rapid dense fog development over northwest Ohio spreading into northeast Indiana including the FWA terminal. The 24 hour temp/dew pt changes showed the FWA spread 5 degrees smaller this past hour then last night at this time. Also, dense fog had already formed in the marine moisture rich air at the Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH). Updated the FWA TAF with categorical dense fog before daybreak. The fog will mix out mid to late morning rendering light east winds.. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Skipper