Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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301 FXUS63 KIWX 152220 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 620 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and primarily dry conditions will persist this week. - Very low humidity values are expected this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Care should be taken with any fires. - There is a low chance of rain Wednesday, mainly east of Interstate 69. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Some indications of the mid level ridge over the Northeast slightly edging westward today through Monday before energy off the southwest Atlantic moves inland south of the ridge. The ridge offers the energy a chance to deep with its upper divergence in the right place and the NHC gives that energy an increased from yesterday 50 percent chance to develop into something tropical. Thereafter, models carry that energy northwestward toward the area by mid to late week this week. As expected, there are some timing differences, but models do have an increase in low level theta-e. However, there is little if any instability to work with, and am still skeptical if anything falls out of it. Rather than flip flop, will continue similar 15 to 20 percent PoPs to the previous shift for the Wednesday and Thursday time frame. During this time, the 700 mb temp is only 6C, so there`s little cap to keep things from going. By Friday or Saturday, trends will be away from the cooler mid level temperatures and increased vorticity from the western Atlantic tropical remnants as they depart southeastward again. So we`ll be back into the dry weather again. Temperature-wise the mid teens 850 mb temperatures trend a little cooler for Tuesday allowing the mid to upper 80s high temperatures through Monday to trend back to the low 80s. It does trend warmer for Wednesday and beyond, but the increased low level moisture acts to restrict mixing and allow for cooler high temps, in the low to mid 80s then. Still have the mid 20s to mid 30s MinRH values through Tuesday, but still the relatively wet fuels and weak winds keep the area free from fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 618 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions continue with dry weather and light southeasterly winds below 10 kts in place through this TAF period and beyond. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Andersen