807
FXUS63 KIWX 171633
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1233 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions will persist through Saturday with highs
in the 80s.

- Very low humidity values are expected this afternoon. Care should
be taken with any fires.

- The next chance of rain is not until early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The disturbance off the Carolina Coast failed to organize into an
actual tropical cyclone and has now moved onshore. Vertically
stacked low pressure is now expected to remain nearly stationary
over the next 24-48 hours before slowly drifting NE and steadily
weakening. Strong mid/upper ridge which has kept our region warm and
dry for many days will hold firm over the Great Lakes and no precip
is expected for the rest of this week. High temps will remain
similar to previous days though perhaps just a degree or two cooler
today and tomorrow given some very subtle CAA in easterly flow and
increased cloud cover over our eastern zones. Western zones may
still climb into the upper 80s but central and eastern zones will
likely remain in the low/mid 80s. Surface dewpoints will once again
crash into the low/mid 40s today given deep mixing and extremely dry
airmass in place per KILN and KDTX soundings. RH values around
20 percent are possible again today though slightly cooler temps
will help. Slight uptick in low level moisture for our
central/eastern zones will keep RH`s above 30 percent on Wed.
While winds remain light, fine fuels are becoming very dry and
care should be taken with any outdoor burning.

Highs near 90F likely once again Thu-Sat as upper low exits and
ridge strengthens once again. 00Z models continue to suggest an
upper low will eject out of the southwest CONUS early next week and
perhaps finally weaken behemoth ridge enough to support (some)
chance for rain. Models remain in large disagreement regarding exact
strength/track of upper low and resultant rain chances though.
Chances don`t appear great given recent dry conditions and lack of
substantive forcing in our area but there is still plenty of time
for changes. Will hold with slight chance PoP`s late Sun/Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR through this period and well beyond as staunch high pressure
ridge aloft remains staked atop the area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...T