629
FXUS63 KIWX 140848
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
448 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry conditions are expected into Sunday, with decreasing clouds
 this morning giving way to mostly clear skies this afternoon.
 Highs will be in the upper 70s near Lake Michigan, and the low
 to mid 80s elsewhere. On Sunday, high temperatures will climb
 into the mid to upper 80s and low 90s.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through the work week,
  with highs in the mid to upper 80s and 90s. Monday into
  Wednesday will be particularly hot, with high temperatures
  rising into the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will be around
  100 degrees.

- There are low chances for showers and thunderstorms during the
  afternoon and evening on Tuesday and Wednesday, then during
  the day Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Expect decreasing clouds this morning into the afternoon as the
system that brought our severe weather yesterday moves out of the
area. As of this writing, all precipitation was south of the
forecast area. Surface high pressure and a strengthening upper level
ridge take hold beyond that, keeping our CWA mostly dry through at
least the weekend. Some patchy fog/mist has developed in the
clearing behind the system, mainly in Michigan where
visibilities are mostly 1-3SM but there are a couple spots less
than 1SM. Will handle with an SPS if it develops further, but
expect it to be fairly limited-especially as we get to sunrise. Highs
will be in the upper 70s near Lake Michigan, and the low to mid
80s elsewhere.

The only exception would be Sunday when the surface high/upper level
ridge sinks to our southeast and leave us on the periphery...thus
susceptible to incoming shortwaves within the somewhat zonal flow
aloft. On Sunday, high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
80s and low 90s ahead of a weak shortwave. The ECMWF has a stronger
ridge, thus keeps the shortwave and any associated precipitation
chances north of our CWA...but the GFS has the zonal flow skirting
our northern counties and thus chances for precipitation as we get
strengthening south-southwest flow and some weaker WAA. Kept pops
out of the forecast for now given low confidence, but if they do
materialize closer to the GFS then I would expect slightly more
cloud cover, a 20-30% chance for showers and storms, and slightly
cooler temps. Right now, have the highs in the afternoon rising into
the mid-upper 80s and low 90s (warmest far southwest near White
County, IN).

Monday into Wednesday will be the real steamer, as the monstrous
high pressure center over the NE CONUS builds and moisture is pulled
northward off the gulf, and 850mb temps of 20-23C funnel into our
area. With daily moisture/instability expect we`ll see diurnally
driven showers and storms...albeit isolated in the absence of any
significant forcing. Have around 20 percent chance Tue/Wed
afternoon. Otherwise, high temperatures rise well into the mid to
upper 90s, with some locations nearing 100 degrees (NW Ohio). With
dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s and low 70s we could see heat indices
from 95 to 105! If the GFS is right, the upper level ridge/high
pressure centers just slightly east from the ECMWF-which will lead
to better daily precipitation chances and increased cloud cover as
our CWA may not be as well underneath the subsidence. Leaned towards
the drier conditions for now, with additional chances for
precipitation focused on Friday when the GFS suggests the ridge
moves into the Atlantic (ECMWF suggest not so much, so didn`t go
beyond around 30 percent chance). If the GFS is right, temps "cool"
somewhat towards the end of the week-moreso than what I have in the
forecast for now (Thu/Fri Highs in the low-mid 90s, heat indices
around 95-100).


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The front and associated storms have moved south and weakened
and are no longer expected at the terminals. A high cloud
canopy was over the area with patchy light fog already being
reported near SBN. Ran the conditional climatology numbers on
SBN which results indicated favorable light fog 11-14Z, so added
some light fog there. The visibility could be briefly lower.
Otherwise, high clouds will eventually scatter. VFR conditions
will prevail after 14Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Skipper