668
FXUS63 KIWX 230530
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
130 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain this afternoon and evening will taper off tonight.

- Additional rain arrives Monday night through Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures this week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A surface low centered over southern Lake Michigan combined with
lift associated with a weak from and dewpoints rising to around
70 is causing moderate rain showers to move across the area this
afternoon. There may be a few embeded thunderstorms, but severe
weather is not expected due to limited instability and only
marginal shear. A cold front will move through later tonight and
showers will taper off from west to east, leaving Monday dry
and much cooler. High temperatures will only be in the low 70s.
However, a shortwave will move up from the southwest on Monday
night, bringing more rain for Tuesday, with lingering showers
possible on Wednesday.

By Thursday, the region will again be stuck between low pressure
system and high pressure will build back in. Temperatures will
warm, although it will not be as hot as last week, with highs
confined mainly to the upper 70s or low 80s. There is some
uncertainty though as to whether or not we will be dry. This
will depend on the track of a cutoff low to the south and if any
shortwaves rotate far enough north to bring convection into the
area. The best chances for more rain will probably be next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Ceilings are highly variable across the area and this will
likely continue through the early morning based on regional obs
and latest model guidance. Steady postfrontal CAA will likely
support a general trend toward IFR by 09-12Z though with only
minor improvement until better mixing develops around 16-18Z.
VFR anticipated thereafter with impacts from next trough not
arriving until after 06Z Monday night.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...AGD