152
FXUS63 KIWX 012311
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
711 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and rainshowers overspread the area the remainder of the
  afternoon and evening.

- Active pattern continues into next week with several chances
  for showers and thunderstorms.

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

As expected, precipitation struggled to enter the area for the
first half of the day despite increasing isentropic lift and a
slow, but steady increase in moisture (low to mid 60s dewpoints
already edging into SW areas). While radar returns are
expanding, the precipitation has been quite light (sprinkles or
light showers at best) as the area awaits the stronger forcing
with the sfc low arrival into this evening. Pops were once again
adjusted to match trends with the greatest focus for rainfall
still existing from late afternoon into late evening west,
expanding east with time. Weakening of upper level features,
occlusion of the low and associated front and finally lack of
overall instability, will limit overall QPF for the area. Also
a west to east trend in drying will likely occur faster
overnight, but some trapped low level moisture and lift could
result in some pockets of drizzle and fog that will need to be
watched by the evening/overnight shifts.

A semi moist environment, combined with weak disturbances (some
convectively induced) moving west to east through Tuesday will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will key on
timing of each wave in relation to peak heating as the overall flow
will be rather stagnant until a stronger northern stream trough digs
into the Plains. Models have demonstrated some consistency on one
wave for Monday evening with model blend keeping likely pops in NW
areas to cover. Not sure this will pan out as timing past diurnal
peak may limit overall coverage.

Greatest chances for showers and storms will exist with the
aformentioned stronger trough mid week. Some timing issues remain
with key features, resulting in large periods of higher pops that
are likely overdone and will require changes in the coming days.

Deep upper low will remain just north of the border through the
remainder of the period with models varying on impacts to the region
as some colder air tries to drop south sending temperatures back
towards normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Widespread showers have been progressing through the area for
the past few hours, with reduced visibilities and ceilings as
well. As the rain continues, I`d expect MVFR ceilings and
visibilities, potentially even with some IFR ceilings overnight
as clouds continue to increase. NBM probabilities have 40 to 50%
chances of IFR ceilings to occur. There may also be some fog
that develops as winds become lighter overnight and clouds
start to dissipate near daybreak Sunday, although I`ve left this
out of the TAFs for now as this is a low confidence scenario.
VFR conditions return by Sunday afternoon. Further adjustments
may be needed in subsequent TAF periods if fog does develop or
if clouds linger later into the day.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Johnson