Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
214 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Issued at 211 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Areas of drizzle will diminish around sunset. Fog is expected
overnight, followed by decreasing clouds area wide through Friday.
Temperatures will become unseasonably warm Saturday through at
least the middle of the next week. High temperatures in the
eighties will be common. The next chance of rain is late next


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Just a few lingering areas of drizzle reside over the region
associated with a low centered over the central IN-OH state line. As
tempting as it is to axe the isolated thunder chance, SPC
Mesoanalysis indicates some instability is present. Plus, in the not-
too-distant past, I removed thunder a little too soon. Anyway, this
activity is expected to diminish around sunset as diurnal responses
end and the moist conveyor belt shifts east.

Tonight`s cloud cover forecast was updated to offer decreasing
clouds sooner, especially in the west. Water vapor imagery this
afternoon shows the back edge of the trough axis approaching Lake
Michigan, while the vast cold front stretched out along the Ohio
River Valley is slowly dropping south. In the vicinity of both these
features, overcast skies are eroding some. Furthermore, high
resolution guidance favors decreasing clouds aside from northwest
Ohio. Fewer clouds would also improve the chance for fog overnight
which remain in the forecast. On the other hand, regardless of
clearing, fog is probable tonight as moisture remains trapped
beneath a low-level inversion.  Dew point depressions will be small
paired with light wind.

The low-level inversion is forecast to mix out late tomorrow morning
providing a fair bit of sunshine by the afternoon hours. High
temperatures will be in the 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

An upper-level ridge dominates the long term forecast period
resulting in dry and warm conditions. High temperatures rise toward
80 degrees beginning Saturday and continue through at least
Wednesday, possibly into Thursday. The normal high temperature is
near 71 degrees. By Wednesday night an Thursday, and upper-level
trough approaches the Great Lakes with a cold front at the surface.
At this distance, there could be plenty of wind shear ahead of this
cold front, but instability looks to be lacking. Thereafter, it
could become notably cooler for the first weekend in October.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Upper low near KTOL will slowly exit through the ern OH valley Fri
as low level cyclonic flow persists across the terminals. Trapped
moisture beneath post frontal inversion will keep low cigs in place
through most if not all of this period and likely some fog again
late tonight.





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