Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 312330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
730 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Continued cloudy and cool into tonight, along with some light
rain and drizzle at times. It will be much warmer by the end of
the week, with highs into the lower 60s. The next chance for
rain starts Saturday, with showers possible into next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Mainly cloudy and cool conditions will persist into tonight and
Wednesday on the backside of a closed upper low over the Northeast
US. Intermittent light showers and drizzle will also remain possible
into tonight given moist boundary layer conditions, cyclonic flow
and some mid level enhancement from a trough axis dropping south.
There will also be non-zero chances for diurnally driven showers on
Wednesday as vorticity shear axis lingers across the central Great
Lakes. However, opted to hold with a silent 10 PoP for now as
boundary layer moisture thins under a strengthening subsidence
inversion. Temps should also trend a few degrees warmer tomorrow
with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Upper level ridge axis will finally edge into the region Thursday
into Friday with some sunshine and warmer temps. Shortwave energy
lifting northeast from the Western US through the Upper Midwest and
Northern Great Lakes will force a weakening/slowing sfc trough
through the area later Saturday into Saturday night. There appears
to be just enough northward moisture transport to support low-mid
chance PoPs for showers during these periods. Little, if any, cool
down is expected post-frontal into Sunday given pacific airmass and
quick rebound in heights. Shower/storm chances then come back into
the forecast early next week as warm advection ramps up in
increasing southwest flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Cyclonic flow continues through the TAF period with a vort max
passing overhead through the flow during the first 6 to 12 hours of
the period. This should allow drizzle to fizzle out not much later
than around 6z tonight. Soundings indicate moisture below the
inversion that may take until the end of the day Wednesday to break
so will continue mention of low MVFR CIGs tonight with a possibility
of IFR CIGs and a transition to MVFR CIGs during the morning
Wednesday. Flow off the lake may be able to create some fog
downstream early Wednesday morning, but trajectories keep it 1 or
2 counties to the west of SBN so will leave that out at this time.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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