Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 190813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
413 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2018

Warm conditions can be expected through Thursday. Highs will
generally be in the lower 80s Wednesday, except a bit cooler near
Lake Michigan and into the upper 80s to around 90 on Thursday.
There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms through the
remainder of the overnight hours into Wednesday, and again on
Friday. Temperatures will trend cooler, more seasonable this
weekend into early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Scattered showers and a few storms popped up along diffuse cool
front across mainly SE sections of the area late evening into the
overnight hours. These will continue to push slowly SE with
subsidence settling in behind it for at least the daylight hours
of Wednesday as shown by clearing skies across NW areas. Hi res
models all pointing at little if any chance for convection through
the day resulting in significant lowering of pops even into this
evening. This may allow temps to soar once again, especially SW
closest to the greatest 850 mb temps.

Frontal boundary will begin to buckle back north tonight in
response to building ridging from the south. Overrunning of
moisture will start towards 6Z Thu across mainly northern sections
of the area. Pops have been trimmed downward somewhat and may even
be able to shaved more across southern sections depending on
northward speed of front. Will defer any further lowering to next


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Warm front will surge north during the day with 850 mb climbing to
20 C in SW areas. Given how afternoon temps have overachieved past
few days with lower 850 mb temps think potential exists for some
mid 90s especially if more in the way of sunshine occurs. This
same warm air will bring unstable, but capped conditions to help
keep convective chances limited (but not non-zero) until Thursday
night and especially Friday when upper level trough digs in the
region with a stronger cold front sweeping through. Still a lot of
uncertainty as to how convection will unfold both Thursday night
to our NW and Friday in the SE. SPC Day 2 outlook keeps severe
threat limited mainly N and W of us which is probably reasonable
as convection will likely be dying as it approaches. Lower end
pops maintained with better chances SE third or so by Friday
afternoon as instability and better timing of dynamics brings a
marginal threat for severe. Some models develop convection out of
the forecast area which is also possible.

Much cooler air will arrive behind the front with highs on
Saturday only in the 60s and lows dropping into the 40s Sat night
in many locations. Temperatures will slowly moderate back into the
70s for the remainder of the period in response to more
substantial trough digging into the Plains by the end of the
period which may bring an even colder shot of air late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Not many changes made to previous forecast for the 06Z TAFS.
Weak stalling boundary across the region and embedded mid/upper
level short wave have been enough coupled with weak elevated
instability for some isolated/scattered shower development
primarily along and south of Route 24. This short wave will
continue to depart east, and expecting little in the way of
additional shower activity at KFWA through remainder of overnight.
Near term higher res guidance does indicate potential of some
MVFR cigs developing across northeast Indiana late night into the
early morning hours of Wednesday across northeast Indiana due to
east-northeast flow off Lake Huron/Erie. Expecting KFWA to likely
be at western fringe of these impacts and will keep combination of
scattered low clouds/MVFR vsbys in the 10Z-13Z timeframe. Not much
confidence for any additional precip in TAFs at this point as mid
level heights should tend to slightly build this morning in wake
of early morning short wave, and better forcing re-focusing across
western Great Lakes region later in the day/tonight. North winds
will veer easterly around 10 knots this morning as sfc high
pressure builds across the northern Great Lakes.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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