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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271046
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
545 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

A fast moving clipper type of system will bring a wintry mix today
and tonight.  Snow accumulations up to 2 inches are likely,
especially near and north of the Michigan line with heavier snow
accumulations farther north in Michigan. Lighter precipitation of
a rain and snow are expected farther south in Indiana with no
accumulations. Highs today and Sunday will be in the 30s to around
40. Lows tonight will be from 25 to 30. The upcoming week will
start out cold with milder weather by Thursday with mostly dry
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

A fast moving/clipper type of system was just emerging out of the
Canadian Rockies over northern Alberta. This system will race
southeast today and bring a mix of precipitation to the forecast
area today and tonight.  Overall, models have initialized this
system well with track solutions continuing to solidify from recent
runs. It still looks like the center of the low track will be close
to the Michigan border with the best chances for snow north of the
low track. Many of the high resolution models continue to keep a
tight snow and precipitation gradient. Will continue with the
forecast of 1-2 inches of snow north of the Michigan line. Have
made some changes tonight with the introduction of drizzle and
freezing drizzle overnight into Sunday morning with the loss of
the seeder/feeder mechanism (with temperatures well above -10C in
the cloud layer). Some travel issues are likely tonight into
early tomorrow near the Michigan border as temperatures fall
several degrees below freezing with the addition of a light
wintry mix to the snow. For now, have opted to mention these
hazards in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product (HWO).

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

The upper level pattern for this upcoming week will transition to
a high zonal pattern bringing modified Pacific air into the
forecast area. This pattern will cause a very slow warm-up but
should allow temperatures to reach near 50 by Thursday. Some
energy will reach the Midwest by late in the week, so have chances
for rain and snow by Friday. Overall, the second half of the week
will be mild without any travel issues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

VFR will persist until later this evening ahead of sw digging
through the nrn lakes. Burgeoning arm sector across the terminals
quite dry in low levels and with better baroclinicity up inline with
sfc low track across srn MI should keep any potential precip late
day north and east of the terminals. Nonetheless post frontal cold
advection and eventual boundary layer moistening will lead to MVFR
stratocu with time this evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T


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