Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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512 FXUS64 KJAN 230026 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 726 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Tonight through Monday night: Continued warmer than normal through the period as ridging surface and aloft remains dominant but, rain chances return to the northwest Monday evening. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1015mb high centered over our CWA with a cold front across the central Plains. Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a 592dam high centered over Mexico and southern Texas. Also noted on satellite imagery was a southern stream shortwave over the central Plains. The surface high will flatten and become a ridge along the Gulf coast by Monday evening while the mid level high flattens as well along the Gulf coast. This will allow the southern stream shortwave trough to shift east and help push the cold front closer to our western zones. Dry weather is expected to continue through Monday but by Monday evening the cold front will bring low chances of light rain across our northwest most zones./22/ Tuesday through Saturday: Wl finally see a pattern change as by Tuesday morning a closed low is expected to have developed over the northern Plains. This closed low will drop to near the mid Mississippi valley by Tuesday evening, deepening the mean upper level trough over the central CONUS and helping to nudge the cold front farther into our CWA. The the upper level flow becomes parallel to the surface cold front, it is expected to stall across our CWA. This will result in an expansion of rainfall to the southeast over our CWA Tuesday that will continue into Wednesday. The closed low will continue drifting south through Arkansas Wednesday as a tropical cyclone likely develops in the southern Gulf. Although there remain differences in the models, consensus has the closed low meandering just west of our CWA and helping to steer the tropical cyclone east of our CWA. The track and intensity of the tropical cyclone will affect our forecast but with model consensus at this time suggesting landfall east of Mississippi perhaps Thursday heavy rain will be possible over east Mississippi. Current storm totals Wednesday through Friday are two to three inches over our eastern counties. Even though the potential tropical system may pull away from our CWA Friday, models don`t lift the closed low to our west out until Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal through Tuesday night but cooler than normal Wednesday with the stalled front across our CWA and the upper level trough overhead. The cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week provided our CWA remains on the west side of any tropical system. /22/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 726 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Quiet & dry TAF period expected the next 24 hours. VFR flight categories are expected Monday, outside of fair weather cumulus around the 6-8kft range & some increasing high clouds in northern TAF sites. Patchy fog/BR can`t be ruled out near PIB/HBG around daybreak, but confidence remains too low for any mention this TAF cycle. Light winds will become southwesterly Monday aftn, generally less than 10mph. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 93 71 91 / 0 0 0 20 Meridian 70 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 70 93 71 90 / 0 0 10 20 Hattiesburg 71 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 70 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 20 Greenville 70 91 71 87 / 0 0 20 30 Greenwood 71 93 71 89 / 0 0 10 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/DC