317
FXUS64 KJAN 011157
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
657 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 459 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Today and Tonight...

The threat for severe weather and the potential for flash flooding
will continue today. Early morning global guidance continue to show
the sfc low tracking northeast towards the Ohio Valley as the sfc
high continues to push east across the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, on
the southern peripheral of this sfc low, a shortwave trough axis
will dig into central MS bringing along the most vigorous
convection this morning. Later in the late afternoon/evening, the
trough axis will start to push to the east and a couple of models
hint at a possible complex developing across our southwest around
this timeframe. With this in mind, the combination of daytime
heating, our warm moist airmass, and a subtle shortwave will help
maintain a threat for isolated severe storms across central MS
through this afternoon. The highlighted Marginal Risk for today was
trimmed slightly to exclude portions of the Delta. Primary risk with
these storms will be damaging wind gusts. Some small hail cannot
be ruled out. In addition to the severe potential, total rainfall
amounts between 2-4 inches of rain will be possible across our
forecast area, with locally higher amounts possible. Some areas
in the west have observed the heaviest rain earlier. Drier air,
less than an inch and a half PWs, will limit some coverage across
the extreme northwest Delta, so some trimming was done to the
western side of the flood graphic for today, to remove areas
along and west of Natchez Trace. Later in the evening, storm
chances will start to diminish across the forecast area as trough
axis pushes further east out of our CWA taking more of the intense
precipitation with it, while nighttime temperatures fall into the
upper 60s across the area. /CR/

Late weekend through next week (Sunday-Friday)...

Late weekend-midweek (Sunday-Wednesday): Active convective pattern
will continue & persist through midweek. Quasi zonal pattern will
continue across majority of areas west of the MS River corridor,
with the Gulf Coast region on the western periphery of departing
trough axis over the OH Valley to FL Peninsula. This will keep west-
northwesterly flow aloft & perturbed deep flow rounding shortwave
ridging off to the southwest. With continued moist ascent & PWs near
or in excess of an inch & a half, there will be continued rain &
storm chances Sunday. With mean deep bulk shear only to around 20-
25kts, not expecting much in the way of organized severe potential
but vertical totals in the 25-27 deg range & 6-7 deg C lapse rates
could support some strong to isolated severe storms at most. This
perturbed & wet pattern will persist through mid week. As ridging
amplifies over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, expect rain & storm
chances to migrate northeastward each day, with more isolated
chances further southwest. Due to continued lapse rates & increased
vertical totals in the 27-29 degree range, especially across western
half of the area, some isolated severe storms cna`t be ruled out
each day. Temperatures will become seasonably warm, with highs in
the upper 80s on Sunday to low 90s by midweek, with some increased
heat stress/heat indices into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
Lows will be seasonably warm in the upper 60s east of I-55 to low-
mid 70s along & northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor.

Late week (Thursday-Friday): Ridging is progged to amplify over the
Four Corners to West TX by late week, with more significant
northwesterly flow moving across the Mid West to as far as the Mid
South to northern portions of the Gulf Coast region. This is in
response to a significant cold core low/frontal system diving across
southern Canada to Hudson Bay area. This will drag an organized
frontal system down across the CONUS into the Gulf Coast region by
late week. Expect more scattered rain & storm chances, with a little
stronger deep flow around the area. Additional isolated strong-
severe storms are possible, with low end CSU probs hitting on that
potential. No areas are outlooked in the HWO for this week. With
frontal system progged to move into the area, temperatures will
become more seasonable in the upper 80s to low 90s & lows in the mid-
upper 60s by late week into next weekend. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Current radar scans show scattered showers and thunderstorms
tracking east across central MS. All TAF sites are currently in a
mixture of MVFR/IFR/LIFR to start off the period. Ceilings will
remain low through 15Z Saturday due to ongoing showers and
storms. By 16Z Saturday, ceilings will begin to improve to
MVFR/VFR starting a little after 16Z Saturday. Rain will start to
clear out of the area starting a little after 00Z Sunday with VFR
conditions prevailing. Winds will be out of the west starting
around 16Z Saturday and will remain out of the west through 22Z
Saturday. By 00Z Sunday, the winds will start to shift out of the
south. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  69  87  70 /  50  10  30  10
Meridian      83  67  87  68 /  80  20  30  10
Vicksburg     86  68  88  71 /  20  20  30  10
Hattiesburg   85  70  87  70 /  90  20  50  10
Natchez       86  68  87  71 /  40  20  40   0
Greenville    86  70  89  73 /  10  10  20  10
Greenwood     84  69  89  71 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/DC/CR