698
FXUS64 KJAN 180939
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
439 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Today through tonight: Morning radar is showing the majority of
the precipitation south of the CWA. Areas of patchy fog will be
possible for southwestern and south-central areas during the early
morning hours but will dissipate after sunrise. A shortwave
trough will continue to progress eastward, helping to push a
stalled frontal boundary near Louisiana away from the region.
Ahead of the trough, showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue to be possible throughout the day with better rain
chances over the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA. As
most of the heavy rainfall remains near the Gulf coast and with
accumulation totals begin 0.5 inches or less, the flood watch was
cancelled, but a "Marginal" risk for severe weather remains for
southeastern and eastern portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts
up 60 mph and hail up to quarter size are the primary hazards of
concern. The aforementioned trough is expected to push through
the area by the afternoon, bringing rain chances to an end from
west to east late afternoon and into the evening. Clouds will
gradually clear out into the overnight hours resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the 60s. /SW/

Sunday through Friday: It looks like most of the long range
forecast for our area will feature rather hot days and dry
weather. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical ridge
extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the most
influence on our weather through early to mid week. With H850
temperatures reaching 18 to 20 deg C in the guidance, it wouldn`t
be surprising to see a few locations reach the mid 90s at some
point. Fortunately, the boundary layer RH is not expected to
reciprocate, and this should help keep heat stress from becoming a
big concern. As we go into mid/late week, a significant shortwave
trough moving across the Plains/MS Valley is expected to suppress
the ridge some and allow a cold front to push into our region.
This will likely increase thunderstorm chances for mainly
northwest/northern portions of the forecast area, and we may need
to monitor for strong to severe storm potential. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

MVFR/IFR flight conditions for majority of TAF sites with the
exception of VFR flight conditions at GLH to begin the TAF period.
VCSH and -RA will be possible tonight and Saturday as a frontal
boundary moves across the area. Near 17-18Z Saturday, flight
conditions are expected to improve to VFR across all TAF sites. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  65  89  66 /  30  10   0   0
Meridian      85  63  88  64 /  50  20   0   0
Vicksburg     86  66  89  66 /  20  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   86  66  90  66 /  40  10   0   0
Natchez       85  66  88  67 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    85  68  90  67 /  40   0   0   0
Greenwood     84  65  90  66 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ057-058-064>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/EC/SW