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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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965 FXUS64 KJAN 171843 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Afternoon showers and storms will be diminishing overnight with rain chances ending by midnight. Overnight lows will be seasonably warm with deep layer moisture remaining in place and associated dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s helping to support overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s F. Remnant convective debris and high cirrus from a tropical feature well to our south will likely result in skies partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will remain light and generally out of the south. By Tuesday, an upper ridge centered near the southeastern CONUS coast will be strengthening and beginning to retrograde, resulting in markedly increased heights across the area. As the tropical wave being monitored by the NHC in the Gulf of Mexico begins to slowly drift west, deep layer moisture will consolidate in the western Gulf while drier continental air spills westward into our area. This combination of a drying low level environment with increasing heights aloft will result in noticeable increases in temperatures and a reduction in rain chances through the upcoming week. Later This Week.. The pattern will remain rather stagnant locally through the week as the deep layer ridge continues to strengthen and expand its influence westward. 500 mb anomalies will likely range 7 to 10 dam above climate normals by the weekend with some areas threatening triple digits for afternoon highs. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out through this week, but coverage will likely be quite sparse as PWs fall below 1.6 inches and overall upper subsidence controls the synoptic pattern. Triple digit temperatures will be possible and 96-99 F temperatures likely across the area as we move into this weekend. Uncertainties mostly concerning how much boundary layer moisture will remain which will determine peak-heating dewpoints and therefor maximum apparent temperatures will make excessive heat hazard forecasts challenging but some heat-related outlook appears likely at some point. /86/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Coverage of SHRA & TSRA are increasing, with most likely area of impacts being psbl at central to westernmost TAF sites. Brief categorical reductions, down to IFR vsby, to are possible within TSRA & heavy SHRA. Rain coverage will decrease tonight, mainly after 18/01-03Z. Additional ceiling reductions are possible late tonight into early Tue morning, mainly across south MS, but confidence is not high enough to introduce in the 18Z TAF cycle. SHRA & TSRA are psbl in southwest sites into Tuesday aftn, while VFR conditions elsewhere. East-southeast winds, up to 15mph & gusts up to 20mph, are psbl through the TAF period. /DC/DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 87 73 91 / 70 10 0 0 Meridian 71 89 71 91 / 40 0 0 0 Vicksburg 73 87 73 91 / 30 20 0 0 Hattiesburg 73 89 73 92 / 60 20 0 10 Natchez 72 84 72 90 / 40 30 10 20 Greenville 74 89 73 92 / 30 10 0 0 Greenwood 73 89 73 92 / 40 10 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ LP/LP/DC